Stellar (XLM) remains bullish but momentum is weakening. A breakthrough at $0.47 is needed for new high opportunities.

Stellar (XLM) has recently continued its pump, rising about 10% over the past week and another 3% in the last 24 hours, maintaining a bullish structure on the daily chart. However, on-chain data shows record exchange balances and a slowdown in technical momentum, which may pose resistance to short-term gains.

Supply Pressure: Exchange Balances Reach All-Time High

(Source: Stellar Expert)

On-chain data shows that the total balance of XLM on the exchange has surpassed 1.03 billion (approximately 469.7 million USD), setting a historical high. In just the period of July to August, the balance reached 1.02 billion, indicating that a large number of tokens can be sold off at any time.

This high supply environment has created a "ceiling effect": whenever the price rises, selling pressure may quickly emerge, limiting the increase.

Demand Support: Money Flow Index (MFI) remains positive

(Source: Trading View)

Despite heavy supply pressure, buying interest has not disappeared.

MFI Index: Currently at 51.32, above the neutral level of 50, indicating that capital inflows remain stable.

Market significance: The buying power is sufficient to prevent the price from falling, but it is still not enough to overwhelm the record supply, resulting in the price being trapped in a range-bound fluctuation.

Technical Analysis: Oscillation within an Ascending Triangle, Momentum Shows Signs of Weakness

(Source: Trading View)

On the 4-hour chart, the XLM price is within an ascending triangle pattern:

Key support: 0.44 USD

Main resistance: 0.46 USD and 0.47 USD

RSI signal: High points are gradually declining, indicating that even though prices are reaching new highs, momentum is weakening, suggesting a potential short-term softness.

Breakthrough and Risk Scenario

Bullish trigger point: If it breaks through 0.47 USD, it will form an effective breakout in terms of pattern, and may trigger a short liquidation chain reaction, pushing the price up rapidly.

Risk level: If it falls below 0.43 USD, the bullish structure will be broken, and long positions may face liquidation, with the price possibly retreating further.

Short-term outlook

Analysts believe that Stellar is currently in a tug-of-war between supply and demand:

Bullish factors: The technical aspect remains in a bullish structure, and capital inflow is stable.

Bearish factors: Exchange balances hit a new high, RSI momentum weakens.

In the short term, the $0.44–$0.47 range will be the core battleground for bulls and bears.

Conclusion

Stellar (XLM) maintains a bullish structure, but high supply pressure and weakening momentum suggest that short-term pumps may slow down. Investors should closely monitor the breakout opportunity at $0.47 and the defensive support at $0.43, as these two price levels will determine the next direction of XLM's movement. For more real-time market data and technical analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.