Ripple price prediction: XRP holds the 50-day moving average after the ETF delay, and technical indicators suggest a Rebound opportunity.

Ripple (XRP) has fallen over 7% since August 14, but under the dual pressure of ETF delays and market pullbacks, the price found key support at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on August 19 and rebounded. On-chain data shows that profit-taking and loss realization among investors remain sluggish, while institutional funds continue to flow in, providing potential momentum for future rebounds.

ETF Delay Does Not Shake Investor Confidence

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced on Monday that it will postpone its decision on the XRP ETF applications submitted by Bitwise, Canary Capital, and Grayscale, with the new approval deadline set for October 18, 2025.

Although the news once put pressure on market sentiment, on-chain data shows that XRP investors did not engage in large-scale profit-taking or selling during this period. Santiment's "consumed token age" and "average token age" indicators both indicate that long-term holders have very little token liquidity, and instead, there are slight accumulation signs.

Institutional Funds Continue to Increase

According to a CoinShares report, last week XRP investment products attracted nearly $127 million in capital inflow, reflecting that institutional investors remain actively positioned during the price pullback. Analysts believe this is related to the recovery of market confidence following the resolution of the recent Ripple lawsuit, which also provides a stronger fundamental support for the eventual approval of ETFs.

Technical Analysis: 50-Day MA Becomes Key Defense Line

On August 18, XRP briefly fell below $3, reaching a support level of $2.95, and then quickly gained buying support near the 50-day MA and rebounded, maintaining the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle pattern.

Upside target: After breaking through the upper boundary of the triangle, it is expected to challenge the resistance level of 3.40 USD. If it stabilizes above this level, it will open up upside potential, with the target directly aiming at the historical high of 3.66 USD.

Downside risk: If it falls below the 50-day MA, the next support to watch is $2.78, and if it loses this level, it may trigger a deeper pullback.

Technical indicators are bearish, but there are still opportunities for a rebound.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) are both currently below neutral levels, indicating that short-term bearish pressure remains. However, combined with low profit-taking rates, institutional fund inflows, and key MA support, there is still a chance for a rebound in the short term.

Conclusion

Although the SEC's delay in the approval of the XRP ETF brings uncertainty, on-chain and capital data show that investor confidence remains unshaken. The support of the 50-day MA has become a defensive line for bulls, and if it can break through $3.40, XRP may welcome a new round of upward attack. Investors should closely monitor the progress of the ETF and changes in key technical price levels. For more real-time market data and in-depth analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.