Bitcoin aims for a new peak as traders ignore concerns about war and inflation

Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $108,000, reaching a local peak at $108,952 on Monday after retesting the support level of $104,000 over the weekend.

This surge occurs against the backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East and investors have lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts by the United States, signaling greater confidence in Bitcoin's potential for price increase.

The sentiment of traders remains stable despite the deteriorating economic and social outlook, as reflected in the data on derivative products.

The annual premium fee for the 30-day Bitcoin futures contract | Source: Laevitas.chThe premium fee for the Bitcoin futures contract reached 5% on Monday, the baseline for a neutral market. Monthly contracts typically trade at a premium fee ranging from 5% to 10% to maintain a longer settlement period.

Although lower than the 8% recorded at the end of May, the market had very little reaction during the BTC retest of the $101,000 mark on June 5, indicating resilience.

The Bitcoin ETFs listed in the United States saw a net inflow of $301.7 million on Friday, and Strategy's announcement of an additional purchase of $1.05 billion on Monday helped ease traders' concerns about the potential economic downturn and the negative impacts of the conflict in Iran, one of the largest oil producers in the world.

The net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs listed in the United States, USD | Source: CoinGlassOil prices initially surged on Sunday, with West Texas Intermediate futures (WTI) reaching $78 before pulling back. By Monday, WTI futures had decreased to around $71.50 a barrel, a move coinciding with a 1.5% increase in the Nasdaq futures market. According to Yahoo Finance, participants expect tensions in the Middle East to ease.

Bitcoin faces barriers from energy costs and the Fed's delay in cutting interest rates

The path for Bitcoin to regain the $110,000 level may be harder than expected, as some analysts point to the risks due to rising energy prices.

On Monday, Philippe Gijsels, the strategy director at BNP Paribas Fortis, said that "the market reaction is quite modest, so there is still room for a decline if things escalate."

In addition to concerns about the energy market, increasing instability also reduces the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates.

According to CME FEDWatch, rising inflationary pressures have prompted traders to price in a 63% chance that the Fed will maintain interest rates at 4% or higher in November, up from 56% a month earlier.

The delta skew of the 30-day Bitcoin options (put-call) | Source: laevitas.chThe confidence of Bitcoin traders is also clearly reflected in the options market, where the 25% delta skew (put-call) decreased to a neutral level of 1% on Monday, after reaching a peak of 6% on Sunday.

Indicators above 5% are often considered negative, reflecting higher demand for put options ( from market makers and arbitrage trades.

Bitcoin is trading just under 4% below the ATH level of $111,965 on May 22, despite increasing volatility and concerns about recession, while the derivatives metrics remain neutral.

This environment supports growth momentum, as the bulls have been unable to induce panic amidst rising global tensions.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research noted that U.S. President Donald Trump "doesn't seem ready to back down from his trade war," while adding that the debate over the trade war is far from over.

Ultimately, regardless of the developments in the Middle East, the path to $112,000 for Bitcoin remains closely tied to alleviating the uncertainties related to the tariff situation.

Vincent