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The Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Powell seems to be in a very tricky situation, with signs indicating that he might choose to resign in the fourth quarter of this year.
Every time important economic data is released, Powell becomes a target of constant criticism, mainly regarding his reluctance to lower interest rates. Recent criticism has been more direct, even labeling him as "the most unwise and harmful figure to the economy within the government."
From the perspective of economic data, there are indeed reasonable grounds for a rate cut. Looking back to September 2019, the Federal Reserve (FED) lowered interest rates by 50 basis points in one go. At that time, the inflation level and employment situation were quite similar to what we see today, which makes the current policy of maintaining high interest rates increasingly difficult to understand.
Although trade policies have brought some market uncertainty, the Federal Reserve's (FED) stance of keeping interest rates unchanged for six consecutive months has also raised questions. More notably, other major economies have begun to implement interest rate cuts, while the Federal Reserve remains inactive.
Under this pressure, Powell seems to have only two options left: either decisively implement multiple interest rate cuts in the third quarter, or choose to resign under excessive pressure.
For participants in the investment market, regardless of which scenario ultimately comes true, it could bring about positive effects, as any changes may alleviate the current economic tensions.