Warning From CryptoQuant: BTC Could Drop To 81,000 USD If Demand Decreases

Bitcoin continues to hover around the $104,500 mark, despite rising geopolitical tensions. Some analysts see this calm as a sign of a maturing market, while others warn of the potential for a bearish trend. A report on June 19 from CryptoQuant presents the most alarming predictive scenario in the cryptocurrency space as BTC could fall to $92,000 or even $81,000 if demand weakens further. Key indicators show that ETF cash flow has decreased by over 60% since April and whale accumulation has halved. Their demand momentum tracking tool has hit a record low, raising red flags. However, Glassnode did not issue a warning. Instead, they explain this calm as a natural shift towards a more institutionalized market. On-chain activity is quite quiet, but large money transfer transactions remain stable, signaling an increasing usage by major players. Derivatives trading volume currently outpaces spot trading by 16 times, indicating deeper, more strategic market behavior. Flowdesk, a trading company, offers a neutral viewpoint. They describe the market as "coiled" rather than cracking and note growth in crypto assets such as XAUT and RWA backed by gold. This could signal an impending breakthrough with an undetermined direction. Institution vs Retail: Key Points The balance between institutional accumulation and retail pullback seems to be the main tension. As retail interest gradually declines, institutional moves may drive significant price volatility, either up or down. Even betting markets like Polymarket are divided on whether BTC will fall to $90,000 or rise to $120,000 by the end of the month. According to the on-chain data provider Santiment, the divide in sentiment between elite investors and retail participants may be an important signal for Bitcoin's next move. Santiment reports that large Bitcoin wallets holding 10 BTC or more have increased by 231 over the past 10 days. Meanwhile, smaller wallets, those holding between 0.001 and 10 BTC, have decreased by more than 37,000. This classic pattern, where retail investors sell while whales accumulate, often precedes bullish reversals in the past. With BTC still fluctuating around $104,300, some view this as a sign that smart money may be positioning for an advantage. Semler's BTC Ambition: 105,000 USD by 2027 Semler Scientific is aiming for a massive bitcoin reserve of 105,000 BTC by 2027, up from just 4,449 currently. The company's plan includes funding purchases through raising equity and debt, but the current market valuation may complicate those efforts. Notably, the company's stock has fallen 40% this year despite BTC reaching an all-time high. Meanwhile, in the macro market, Bitcoin is facing resistance at $105,150, while Ethereum is consolidating below $2,510. Gold holds steady at $3,366 amid global tensions. Japan's Nikkei opened slightly higher as the market follows China's interest rate decision. Visa expands its stablecoin issuance operations in Europe and MENA, Solana faces interest from Nasdaq, and Anthony Scaramucci believes that SOL will surpass Ethereum.