New Taiwan Dollar Violently Appreciates "Central Bank's 4,000 Character Response to Public Grievances": The Impact on Exports is Not Only Negative, within a Reasonable Range.

The rise of the Taiwan dollar above 30 yuan triggered a discussion of "violent appreciation", and the central bank also released a 4,000-long article in the face of major public complaints, pointing out that there is not necessarily harm to the export industry, and should see clearly the era of "both advantages and disadvantages", and said that the current appreciation is reasonable, and said that the influx of foreign capital and the reduction of import costs offset each other, and then observe the trend of US tariffs and the US dollar. (Synopsis: The Taiwan dollar has skyrocketed, and the central bank has stopped fighting? Interpretation of Yang Jinlong's mouth "self-occupants loosen loans") (Background supplement: Yang Jinlong clarifies the "truth of the explosion of the Taiwan dollar": the central bank has not been instructed by the United States, and the market is full of false information to interfere with expectations) The exchange rate of the new Taiwan dollar against the US dollar has risen rapidly above 30 yuan since April, triggering market concerns about "violent appreciation". Foreign purchases of Taiwan stocks, early stocking orders and Taiwan's solid fundamentals have made the Taiwan dollar one of the strongest Asian currencies this year. The central bank has opted for limited intervention to avoid falling on the list of "currency manipulators" in the eyes of the Trump administration, which may return to the White House. The central bank: the advantages and disadvantages of appreciation coexist For the recent appreciation of the new Taiwan dollar, the central bank completed a nearly 4,000-word post on June 19, and explained its views through the media the next day, the report pointed out that the main reason for the expansion of the fluctuation of the new Taiwan dollar exchange rate is the change in the international economic, trade and financial situation, on April 9, the United States announced that the implementation of reciprocal tariffs was suspended for 90 days, and announced the temporary exemption list of 20 reciprocal tariffs such as semiconductors, resulting in customers having an expected psychology to prepare goods in advance, attracting foreign capital to flow into Taiwan stocks, and increasing the supply of dollars in disguise, so it should not be regarded as an out-of-control exchange rate. Rather, it is a short- to medium-term rational expectation adjustment. In response to the domestic export shock, the central bank said that it cannot just look at the surface, because appreciation will drive up export quotations and cause book losses, but at the same time make imported raw materials and equipment cheaper, which can reduce production costs and curb inflation, while the report pointed out that Taiwan, which is dominated by high-tech manufacturing, has key technologies in the supply chain, and high-end products are less sensitive to exchange rates, which can partially offset the impact. Data in the face: not dragging down exports Since the United States announced on April 9 that it would postpone the equivalent tariffs on some goods and publicly announced the list of exemptions, overseas customers rushed to place orders before the tax increase, driving Taiwan's semiconductors, AI servers and efficient computing (HPC) exports. The influx of foreign capital has become a key driver of the appreciation of the Taiwan dollar, pushing the weighted index to rise in tandem with the exchange rate, while from the economic data, exports have not shown a recessionary trend. During the appreciation of the Taiwan dollar from 2019 to 2022, exports grew by an average of 13.9% per year, GDP grew by an average of 4.3% per year, and export prices in US dollar terms decreased by 7.3% year-on-year in May this year, but the amount in Taiwan dollar terms increased by 32.3% per year, mainly due to strong demand for AI and HPC. From 2015 to 2021, listed companies accumulated a cumulative exchange loss of MOP116.7 billion, and from 2022 to 2024, they accumulated a cumulative exchange loss of MOP474.9 billion, with a net profit of MOP358.2 billion in ten years, reflecting the improvement of risk management capabilities. The central bank's follow-up observation focus The central bank's board of directors and supervisors in June stood still and adopted a "volatility tolerance" strategy for the exchange rate, and will still prefer to slow down excessive volatility if necessary. Companies reduce exchange rate risk through hedging and accelerate investment in advanced processes. Investors should pay attention to changes in US tariff policy, US dollar trends and terminal demand in the second half of the year, which will affect the Taiwan dollar and Taiwan's economy. Yang Jinlong, governor of the central bank, emphasized: "Prices are our main goal. The exchange rate is determined by market supply and demand, and if there are uncertainties or irregular changes, the central bank will maintain market order." All in all, the appreciation of the new Taiwan dollar is not a one-sided bearish. Strong technology, foreign capital momentum and the prudent approach of the central bank have all helped Taiwan maintain its growth momentum amid exchange rate fluctuations. Related reports Yang Jinlong: The "soft landing" of Taiwan's housing market has taken initial effect, but the central bank's control will not be relaxed, and it does not want to repeat the Japanese bubble: The volatility of the new Taiwan dollar "far exceeds that of Bitcoin"! Netizens go to the central bank Facebook: the export industry will collapse, Yang Jinlong is still sleeping The central bank does not rule out the "eighth wave of house fighting" Yang Jinlong: crazy buying will spawn a huge bubble, must be shot in advance "New Taiwan dollar violent appreciation "central bank 4,000 words to respond to public grievances": not only bad for exports, the range is within a reasonable range" This article was first published in the moving area BlockTempo "dynamic trend - the most influential blockchain news media".