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2025/6/22 #SUI# $SUI Current trend assessment: bearish trend.
Core Indicator Analysis:
1. Price Trend:
Fell from 3.0758 (June 13) to 2.5689 (June 21), showing an overall downward trend.
The latest data (2.5831) has shown a slight rebound but is still below the key resistance level of 2.7.
2. EMA Moving Average System:
The fast line ( EMA12) continues to be below the slow line ( EMA26), indicating a typical bearish arrangement.
Current difference: 2.681098 (fast) vs 2.765238 (slow), difference -0.084 indicates bearish dominance.
3. MACD Indicator:
DIF and DEA remain in the negative value zone, but the latest histogram (-0.01431) has narrowed.
Potential bottom divergence has appeared: when the price hits a new low, the MACD indicator does not confirm a new low.
4. Volume Characteristics:
The decline is accompanied by increased volume (such as the large bearish candlestick with a trading volume of 320 million on June 17).
Recently, the rebound has been weak in terms of volume (latest 136 million), and we need to be cautious of the lack of strength in the rebound.
5. RSI Series Indicators:
The RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone of 24.6 to 27.08, still below the 30 strength boundary.
StochRSI has a golden cross (K value 3.97 crosses above D value 3.15), short-term oversold rebound signal
Key Turning Point Observation:
Bullish signal: If it breaks above 2.65 (previous low turned resistance) and the RSI stabilizes above 30, it may turn into a range.
Continuation of bearish trend: If it breaks below 2.546 (recent low), it will confirm the continuation of the downward trend.
Operation Suggestions:
Short-term can take a small position to bet on a rebound (stop loss at 2.54), but for the medium term, we still need to wait:
1. EMA Golden Cross Confirmation
2. MACD histogram has turned positive for 3 consecutive bars.
3. RSI effectively breaks through the 40 neutral zone
The current market is in a technical rebound stage under bearish control. It is recommended to primarily adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies, with strict stop-loss settings. Close attention should be paid to the breakout situation at the resistance level of 2.65.