Bitcoin Halving Market Dynamics: Mining Revenue Declines Sharply, Growth in Large Holding Addresses

Bitcoin completed its 4th halving on April 20, with the block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC. The halving has had a direct impact on mining, causing a sharp decline in miner income in the short term. The market generally expects that the halving will drive up the price of the coin, but in reality, since the halving, Bitcoin has still been consolidating at a high level, with a slight price drop of 3.87%, putting pressure on miners and short-term investors.

Each halving is essentially a process of rebalancing market supply and demand. Current market data shows:

1. Since March, the proportion of loss-making Bitcoin chips has risen from 1.28% to 15.18%. The average SOPR index for short-term investors after the halving is 0.99972, indicating that some investors are experiencing losses due to halving expectations.

2. After the reduction in production, the circulation rate of on-chain tokens decreased by 23%, with more chips in an accumulation state. Since the beginning of this year, the number of chips held for 1-3 months, 3-6 months, and 3-5 years has significantly increased; the number of addresses with balances of 100-1000 BTC and 1000-10000 BTC has surged by more than 1.3%.

3. After the production cut, miners face significant pressure. Based on the current coin price and high electricity costs, the shutdown price has reached $55,000, a substantial increase from $14,300 in August of last year.

4. The current daily mining total revenue is approximately $26.4871 million, a decrease of 51.63% compared to before the halving. Daily transaction fees are about $2.28 million, a decrease of 34% compared to before the halving.

5. If the fee income remains unchanged, the price of the coin needs to reach 94489.82 US dollars (, an increase of 51.63% ) from the current level, to restore the average daily income level before the halving.

6. If the coin price remains unchanged, then the daily trading frequency needs to reach 1,673,700 times (, which is an increase of 202.49% compared to after the halving ), or each transaction fee needs to reach 0.00080317 BTC (, which is an increase of 206.08% compared to after the halving ), in order to restore the pre-halving income level.

7. The launch of Runes brought substantial profits to miners, contributing 881 BTC in fees on the first day.

From the demand side, the Bitcoin ecosystem still appears weak. Runes-related transactions dropped from a peak of 463,600 to 79,400, and transaction fees fell from 881 BTC to 4 BTC. The on-chain TVL of Bitcoin reached $1.208 billion, growing by 296% this year, but remained basically flat after the halving. AINN Layer2 performed well, with a TVL of $590 million.

Overall, after the halving, the market is seeking a new balance, miners are facing significant pressure, the number of large holding addresses has increased noticeably, but the demand side still needs further activation to support the healthy development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.