Analysis of Trends in the Web3 Industry

1. Market Environment Overview

1. Macroeconomic Situation

The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting show that there are concerns about the rising risks of inflation. Participants generally believe that the point of slowing the pace of monetary policy easing is close, reflecting confidence in strong economic activity. Although the interest rate was cut by 25 basis points at this meeting, officials are cautious about future rate cuts, expecting only a 75 basis point cut for the entire year of 2025. The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the end of this month, with the first potential rate cut in June.

The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that the current economic situation requires more cautious monetary policy decisions, implying that interest rate cuts may be slowed down in the coming months to respond to the changing economic environment.

2. Cryptocurrency Regulation

The outgoing chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has once again emphasized the urgency of cryptocurrency regulatory legislation. He anticipates that the legislative process may take 6 to 10 months, followed by a rule-making process that could last a year. He believes that the acting chairman will play a key role in the new regulatory environment and mentioned that commission members have been exploring the establishment of a "sandbox" environment to allow cryptocurrency participants to operate within a controlled framework.

Some legislative efforts promoted by certain lawmakers, although not perfect, are still positive attempts. Existing regulations struggle to address the challenges of the cryptocurrency market, and there is an urgent need to update and improve the regulatory framework.

2. Hot Events

1. The rise in bond yields affects the crypto market.

The rise in global government bond yields has drawn market attention. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury has risen to 4.70%, close to a multi-year high. Since the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September, this yield has increased by over 100 basis points. Meanwhile, the yield on the 30-year UK government bond has reached 5.35%, the highest level since 1998.

The rise in interest rates reflects changes in the global economic environment, which may affect investors' choices between cryptocurrencies and other high-risk assets, posing a challenge to the sustained bull market in crypto. Investors may reassess their risk preferences, thereby impacting the demand for cryptocurrencies.

2. The U.S. Department of Justice is authorized to sell a large amount of Bitcoin.

The U.S. Department of Justice has been authorized to sell 69,370 Bitcoins seized in the Silk Road case, valued at approximately $6.5 billion. The U.S. government currently holds 198,109 Bitcoins and 54,753 Ethers, with a total value of nearly $18.8 billion.

Although approval for sale has been granted, the specific timing has yet to be determined. There are only 11 days left until the new president takes office, and they have stated that they will not sell any Bitcoin after taking office, making future sale plans highly uncertain. Related bets show the probability of a sale is 22%. As a result of this news, the price of Bitcoin fell by nearly 2%, quoted at $93,365.2.

3. Industry Trends

1. Establishment of the Web3 Games and AI Development Fund

A well-known investment institution has jointly launched the G.A.M.E. Fund 1 with an interactive company to promote the development of Web3 games, AI agents, and social platform applications. The first round of investment is confirmed for the mobile casual gaming company Gomble Games, which has over 110 million global users.

The fund focuses on three areas: Web3 game innovation, AI agent development, and content creation for social platforms. The CEO of the fund emphasized that the future of gaming lies in the combination of high-performance infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and social connectivity.

2. Emerging meme coins attract attention

A meme coin called $Smelt has garnered attention due to political controversy in California, USA. The controversy stems from accusations against the governor of neglecting the impact of wildfires in order to protect endangered fish species. This incident has become a focal point for party attacks, and there is still room for speculation as the wildfires continue.

$Smelt's market value has reached 6 million dollars. It is worth noting that this coin was automatically launched by AI. This reflects the sensitivity of the meme coin market to social hot topics, as well as the application of AI technology in cryptocurrency issuance.

4. Market Sector Analysis

Recently, the gaming and AI-related sectors have shown active performance, indicating the market's continued interest in these fields. At the same time, the DeFi and NFT sectors also have a certain level of heat, reflecting the diversified development trend of the crypto market.

The performance differences among projects within various sectors are明显, reflecting investors' enhanced selectivity towards specific projects. In the future, with the changes in the regulatory environment and the advancement of technological innovation, the development trends of each sector may undergo new changes.