Reflection on Hong Kong Web3 Carnival: Industry Status and Future Outlook

The recent Web3 carnival held in Hong Kong has sparked a lot of discussion. This article will reflect on and analyze this event and the current state of the industry.

1. Reasons for the Lack of Enthusiasm in the Event Atmosphere

The first impression left by this carnival is one of desolation. Compared to the bustling crowds of previous years, this year there are very few participants, the VIP area is vacant, and the number of attendees at the exhibition is sparse. This sense of desolation has multiple reasons:

First, the venue layout is unreasonable, giving a sense of emptiness. Secondly, the preparation work is insufficient, making it difficult to invite heavyweight guests, and the participation of the project parties is not high. Furthermore, the speech quotes have returned to rationality, and some speeches seem more like a way to prove their own presence.

The deeper reason lies in the fact that the relationship between the East and the West has not yet improved. The presence of Western faces has noticeably decreased, and even industry giants like Vitalik attending in person struggle to change the overall atmosphere. The fundamental issue is the differences in culture and pursuits. Some people view Web3 technology merely as a casino, attracting more speculators and influencing the overall direction of the industry. The sincerity of Western public chains towards the East is also lacking, seeing them more as users rather than partners.

2. Limitations of RWA Narrative

RWA( real-world assets ) have become the mainstream narrative this year, but they are essentially no different from last year's hot topics such as NFTs, inscriptions, and memes. From a macro perspective, the mainstream narrative of each cycle will ultimately be regarded as correct.

However, grand narratives often overlook individual rights. While capturing the mainstream narrative can lead to short-term growth, the real challenge lies in user retention. Currently, the application scenarios of blockchain technology are still limited, and most are not daily necessities.

The RWA sector also faces similar issues as when the Web2 elites entered - some people talk a lot yet know nothing about the basics. In contrast, the Bitcoin ecosystem is indifferent to the narrative and has greater potential.

3. The Dilemma Faced by Vitalik

Vitalik is currently facing a difficult choice: any decision he makes could lead to personal or collective tragedy. As a genius, Vitalik's level of effort is second to none in the industry, and his youth brings infinite potential to Ethereum.

However, being 30 years old also has its limitations, making one susceptible to being surrounded by petty individuals or falling into verbal traps. Vitalik's recent speeches have almost entirely bet on L2; while this strategy has its rationale, it also carries potential risks. If L1 itself is sufficiently excellent, is there still a need for L2? How should the gap between L2s be addressed? These questions constitute the current dilemma of choice.

4. The Predicament of Web3 Games

The Web3 gaming sector is still reluctant to give up, but in reality, it has become a trap. Players and investors have woken up, and only those who are still obsessed are holding on. Currently, those investing in this field mainly cite reasons of ecological positioning, defensive positioning, and cost considerations.

Web3 games were once considered a highly promising direction, but from "play-to-earn" to on-chain games and then to Telegram games, no breakthroughs have been made. This is because for users in the crypto space, the stimulation from purely financial activities like inscriptions far outweighs that from games.

Game companies venturing into the Web3 space often end in failure. The cost of user education is high, and existing crypto users are only focused on financial attributes. Nevertheless, since gaming itself is a good business, some investors will still be attracted.

5. Is a bear market coming?

Every narrative confusion period seems to occur around the Hong Kong conference. This year's situation is similar to previous years, many faces remain, but the projects have undergone several rounds of changes. Those who have experienced multiple cycles know: the bear market is the opportunity for entrepreneurs.

Fields such as DeFi, NFT, and the metaverse were once highly anticipated, but currently, the only ones that are truly widely used are stablecoins and related transactions. A new vulnerable group has emerged - venture capital ( VC ). They have shifted from once pointing out the way to frequent losses today, and the root cause lies in the operational issues of early projects.

Hong Kong's attitude has changed significantly, but the underlying logic remains "as long as there are no problems, we will accept it." The current market has been taken over by institutions, making it difficult for small entrepreneurial ideas to challenge the status quo. The collaboration between institutions and entrepreneurs has only just begun.

6. Where are the future opportunities?

Despite many issues, the industry is not without its merits. After the upheaval of inscriptions and Meme storms, what remains is the optimization of infrastructure and products that can discern demand, as well as teams proficient in underlying technologies. The flow of talent has also facilitated industry development.

In terms of direction, the development of public chains is no longer a hot topic, and funds are no longer solely focused on large protocols. Instead, tool-layer and application-layer projects with clear business models and user groups have welcomed opportunities.

Cryptography and user operations have reached a bottleneck, and in the future, a compromise between centralization and decentralization may be necessary. Before clarifying the goals, it is important to protect one's attention, enhance discernment, and maintain a good mindset amidst cyclical fluctuations.

Conclusion

Disappointment in the industry stems from overly high expectations in the early stages. If Web3 is viewed as Crypto Finance 3.0, the mindset will be more rational. There will always be a group of people in the world who pursue freedom; providing them with the best tools and facilities is enough.

What truly deserves attention is always those who excel in their jobs. Currently, as the bubble gradually fades, everyone begins to pursue products that genuinely meet user needs, have cash flow, and a business model. The transition from "market dream rate" to "market share" is a sign of the industry maturing.