Crypto Market Weekly Review: BTC Fluctuates at High Levels, Awaiting Breakthrough

This week, the opening price of BTC was $108,386.44, and the closing price was $109,217.98, with an increase of 0.77%. The highest price was $110,590, the lowest price was $105,119.70, and the fluctuation range was 5.05%. Trading volume continues to shrink.

The market has been relatively calm over the past week, with macro events still being key factors influencing the price movement of BTC. Employment data, important legislation, and tariff policies have not shown any changes beyond expectations.

A large holder with over 80,000 BTC, who has been inactive for 14 years, started moving assets this week, putting some psychological pressure on the market. As the price of BTC approaches historical highs again, the trend of long-term holders reducing their holdings may reappear.

However, some positive changes are also occurring. After more than a month of silence, the activity level of funds in the market has begun to rise. This may resonate with off-market funds, driving BTC to initiate the fourth wave of this bull market.

Policy, Macroeconomic Finance and Economic Data

This Wednesday, three major macro events intertwined to impact the crypto market.

First, the U.S. employment data exceeded expectations. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. Although private sector jobs decreased, government jobs increased significantly. The latest number of unemployment claims was also lower than expected. This alleviated concerns about an economic recession on one hand, and on the other hand, it reduced the likelihood of an interest rate cut in July. The impact on the market is relatively neutral.

Secondly, the President of the United States officially signed an important bill, marking the biggest political achievement of this term. The bill includes a large-scale tax cut, an increase in the government budget, and spending cuts, which may long-term affect the credit of the dollar, but in the short term will stimulate the economy. The financial markets generally hold a positive attitude, pushing the S&P 500 index to reach a new high.

Finally, the tariff policy has entered a new phase. The United States announced the implementation of new tariff policies on 12 countries, with tax rates ranging from 10% to 70%, expected to take effect on August 1. This introduces new uncertainties for global trade, inflation, and market sentiment. The market reacted slightly negatively to this, but the extent was limited.

Currently, the US economy is exhibiting characteristics of either a soft landing or no landing, with an expected interest rate cut starting in September. Important legislation is expected to benefit the stock market in the short term. The impact of tariffs is about to pass. Under the expectation of interest rate cuts, the US stock market may continue to rise. However, close attention must be paid to corporate earnings and the impact of tariffs on economic employment.

crypto market

This week, the BTC market is relatively calm, but changes are brewing internally.

On July 2, Bitcoin once again tested the "first bullish uptrend line", spending most of the week around $108,000 and making a third attempt to reach the historical high of $110,000.

The retail market shows clear differentiation, with enthusiasm for on-site trading declining and on-chain activity remaining flat. However, the spot ETF market is thriving with continuous inflow of funds.

Currently, the price trend of BTC is mainly influenced by the funds from the spot ETF, with its correlation to the Nasdaq index rising to 0.94.

Some changes are happening, with on-chain lending rates and contract market premium rates rebounding from the bottom. If spot ETF funds continue to flow in, on-chain funds may begin to resonate with long positions, and the fourth wave of price increase may be imminent.

capital flow

After the big rebound, the capital inflow has shown differentiation. The funds in the stablecoin channel have weakened, while the funds in the spot ETF channel remain relatively stable.

This week, the inflow of spot ETFs was $790 million, a decrease from last week but still at a high level. The inflow of stablecoin channels was $1.574 billion, similar to last week.

selling pressure and selling

As the price approaches 110,000 dollars again, long-term holders seem to be initiating a new round of selling.

From the scale of transfers to the exchange, the total selling scale of short-term and long-term holders this week is still shrinking, providing support for price increases.

However, this week an ancient wallet that holds over 80,000 BTC and had been dormant for 14 years showed activity, leading to a significant increase in on-chain liquidation value.

If Bitcoin breaks through $110,000 and starts the fourth wave of上涨, long-term holders and large holders may initiate selling again. These sell-offs will collectively determine the new price heights along with buying power.

cyclical indicators

According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.625, in an upward phase.