Does China's Q2 GDP continue to maintain growth impacting the price of Bitcoin?

China's impressive economic performance in the second quarter of 2025 has generated mixed signals for digital asset markets. Beijing's monetary policy transmission mechanisms are showing a complex influence on cryptocurrency valuations through changing correlation patterns.

China's economy grew by 5.2% in this quarter, surpassing analysts' expectations of 5.1%. Information from the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed the sustained growth momentum despite facing increasing global trade tensions, facilitating the strategic repositioning of digital assets.

Mixed Economic Signals

Despite the US increasing tariff measures, China's export sector has still shown significant strength. Exports in June soared, bringing the trade surplus up to 114.8 billion USD thanks to market diversification and preemptive actions.

However, challenges in domestic consumption still exist beneath the surface of overall growth. Retail sales have dropped to 4.8% year-on-year in June, down from 6.4% in May, despite Beijing's 300 billion yuan consumer stimulus program. Investment in real estate has also decreased by 11.2% in the first half of the year, continuing to pressure the economy.

Macroeconomic Correlation Drivers with Bitcoin

Digital asset analysts are closely monitoring the established correlation patterns between China's stimulus measures and Bitcoin price volatility. Current data shows a 30-day correlation coefficient of 0.66 between the expansion of the People's Bank of China's balance sheet (liquidity injection measures) and Bitcoin pricing—a relationship that tends to increase during periods of economic uncertainty.

When the People's Bank of China implements stimulus packages, excess liquidity often flows into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The downward pressure on the yuan further drives capital outflows from China towards Bitcoin as a hedge against currency depreciation and capital control measures.

The strong growth of GDP may reduce the immediate stimulus capacity, thereby limiting the potential price increase of Bitcoin due to the influence of correlation. Conversely, prolonged weakness in domestic demand may necessitate additional monetary support measures.

Mr. Giáo