The World of Speculators: Narratives, Risks, and Crypto Assets

In this universe full of uncertainty, each of us is a speculator. Our brains constantly construct probability maps of the environment, and our actions are based on probabilistic predictions of various outcomes rather than concrete facts.

Take skiing as an example; the best slope for skiing is also the ideal slope for an avalanche. Before skiing, the guide will assess the avalanche risk, taking into account snow conditions, weather, and other information. If the risk is too high, we will not ski.

Similarly, when choosing between taking the elevator or climbing the stairs, we are also weighing efficiency against safety. While the elevator is faster, mechanical failures can have serious consequences. We will weigh the risk of injury against the benefits of saving time and energy.

In fact, we are always risking our lives. This is not a bad thing, but rather the essence of human inability to perfectly predict the future. How terrifying it would be if we could accurately foresee the future. I prefer our imperfections.

For social animals like humans, our perception of behavioral risks mainly comes from narratives formed by "collective wisdom." The most influential stories are often those that are widely accepted. This narrative is built on objective facts, but since it is difficult for individuals to obtain accurate statistical data, we often rely on the judgments of others.

In practical situations, we tend to trust experienced professionals and general consensus. For example, I would trust the judgment of a professionally trained ski guide, and I would assume that elevators are safe because most people use them. Our assessment of risk is primarily based on trust in the experiences and expertise of others rather than purely on technical analysis.

This is also true in the field of Crypto Assets. When evaluating a new project, we often pay more attention to the team's background and the advisory lineup rather than the technical details. Since most people find it difficult to assess a project from a technical perspective, we rely more on the judgments of others.

In fact, the importance of stories in investment decisions often outweighs the technology itself. A good story can spread quickly, whether it is positive or negative. As investors, our job is to identify which projects have the potential to achieve significant returns in the transition from "impossible" to "possible."

In a bull market, the speed at which macro and micro stories spread is particularly important. Macro stories describe overall trends, while micro stories explain why specific projects may stand out. Choosing the right timing for investment is also crucial, as getting involved early in the story often has advantages over entering when market expectations are already high.

In the coming months, we will focus on potential opportunities in several areas, including decentralized exchanges, ETH staking derivatives, cross-chain technology, and more. Currently, market attention is concentrated on Bitcoin ETFs and global fiat currency devaluation, which may drive Bitcoin and Ethereum prices to new highs. However, our goal is to identify potential projects that can outperform the performance of these two major Crypto Assets.