Bitcoin breaks through the descending channel as the global tariff war eases, triggering market Fluctuation.

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This week, the opening price of Bitcoin was $78,370.15, and the closing price was $84,733.07, with a weekly increase of 6.84% and a volatility of 14.89%. Trading volume has significantly increased. For the first time since late January, the price of Bitcoin has effectively broken through the upper edge of the descending channel, approaching the 200-day moving average.

The biggest variable in the global macro-financial arena remains Trump's tariff policy. Its dramatic performance has surprised the world, and China's countermeasures have also attracted widespread attention.

In this "standoff game", the party that concedes first is likely to fail. This global tariff war has triggered reactions from politicians, businesses, and capital markets in various countries, ultimately leading to a withdrawal of funds from the US market, with the US stock, bond, and currency markets experiencing rare simultaneous setbacks.

In the face of a huge financial crisis, the Trump administration chose to back down, partially suspending or reducing the intensity of tariff implementation and expanding the list of exempted goods. At the same time, it released goodwill towards China in the public opinion arena. Thus, the tariff policy entered its second phase, where multiple parties will begin negotiations and compromises.

The risk asset market, which previously plummeted due to the impact of the first phase of policy, has since rebounded. Although the most severe effects of the tariff policies may have already passed, uncertainties will continue to dominate various markets. The tariff crisis will not easily come to an end, nor will it easily trigger a new crisis. Future focus will be on whether the tariff conflict escalates, whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in a timely manner, and whether the U.S. economy will fall into recession.

In terms of policies, macro-financial and economic data, due to most countries' difficulties in countering tariff policies, China and the EU have become the main counteracting forces, with China's retaliatory measures being particularly noteworthy.

After multiple rounds of confrontation, the United States has raised tariffs on China to 145%, while China's counter-tariffs on the U.S. have reached 125%. This has effectively severed the possibility of normal trade exchanges, which is why China subsequently announced that it would no longer respond to any possible further tariff increases by the U.S.

On April 10, the U.S. suspended tariffs on most countries (excluding China), keeping a 10% "baseline tariff," and began negotiations. As a result, the U.S. stock market surged, and the Nasdaq index recorded the second-largest single-day increase in history.

China's seemingly passive actions have actually exerted tremendous pressure on the United States. On the 12th, the U.S. exempted 145% tariffs on certain Chinese goods, including smartphones, tablets, laptops, semiconductors, integrated circuits, flash memory, and display modules.

The push for the Trump administration to enter the "second phase" is not only due to China's countermeasures but also the strong opposition from the U.S. political, business, and financial sectors.

On Monday, April 7, the three major U.S. stock indices fell sharply, reaching adjustment lows and entering or nearing a technical bear market. The next day, the VIX fear index hit a high of 52.33, marking the third peak since the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

At the same time, the short-term government bond yield fell to 3.8310% on Thursday, while the long-term government bond yield rebounded significantly on Friday, closing at a high of 4.4950%.

After a massive sell-off in the US stock market, funds from US Treasury bonds also joined the selling spree. Additionally, with funds flowing from the US to Europe and other regions, the US Dollar Index (DXY) also experienced a significant decline.

The "triple kill" in the stock market, bond market, and foreign exchange market has forced the Trump administration to signal a easing of the trade war and announce a list of exemptions. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has also sent a "dovish" signal. Boston Fed President Collins stated in an interview on Friday that the Fed is "absolutely ready" to use various tools to stabilize the financial markets when necessary.

The easing of the trade war and the Federal Reserve's verbal market support temporarily calmed the U.S. financial markets. On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indices ended a turbulent week with gains.

Some analysis suggests that the U.S. tariff war has entered its second phase, and the market may gradually begin to bottom out, but due to the "irrationality" of the Trump administration, as well as the significant risks of economic recession and inflation in the U.S. (the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index released this week continues to decline to 50.8), the likelihood of a V-shaped recovery is relatively low.

In terms of blockchain data, the on-chain selling pressure from short-term and long-term holders has weakened this week, slightly halting three consecutive weeks of panic selling. The total on-chain selling volume for the week was 188,816.61 coins, with short-term holders accounting for 178,263.27 coins and long-term holders for 10,553.34 coins. On the 7th and 9th, the short-term holder group experienced significant losses again amid global market panic.

Currently, the long-term holders group is still playing the role of a stabilizer, with nearly 60,000 coins added this week, indicating that market liquidity is still quite scarce. By the weekend, the overall short-term holders group is still at a floating loss level of 10%, indicating that the market is still under tremendous pressure.

According to indicators from certain analytical agencies, the Bitcoin market cycle indicator is 0.125, in an upward continuation phase.