XRP - short-term forecast for 1 - 2 weeks and the upcoming quarter

What is happening now

The spot quote is holding at $3.57, reaching $3.66 intraday.

The daily turnover remains colossal - over 20 billion $ in the market.

On-chain metrics confirm healthy demand: about 11,000 active wallets per day and fresh large withdrawals of XRP from exchange accounts to cold addresses.

The number of whales ( balance ≥ 1 million XRP ) is at an all-time high.

There are two key news items in the foundation: the launch of the ProShares futures ETF on CME and the pilot tokenization of real estate in Dubai based on XRPL.

Technical picture
The price is hovering above all key moving averages (20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages ). RSI-14 is at 63, indicating no overbought conditions.
MACD has remained "green" since the beginning of July.
The average daily volatility (ATR-14) is about $0.29, which is ±8%. Buyers are concentrating in the range of $3.15–$3.25, with the main resistance now at $3.70–$3.75; above — the historical barrier $4.00+.

Probabilistic scenarios for the next 1 – 2 weeks
Basic
XRP is fluctuating between 3.20 $ and 3.70 $. Volumes remain high, bitcoin is not dropping below 105 k $.
Tactics: buy on pullbacks to $3.30–$3.35, keep the stop below $3.10, target — $3.70. Risk/reward ratio is approximately 1:2.

Bullish
Volumes continue to grow, news about the ETF is boosting demand, and the price is stabilizing above $3.75. The road opens to $3.80–$4.20.
Tactics: fix part of the position in the range of 3.95–4.05 $, keep the remainder until 4.20 $, pull the stop to 3.40 $.

Bearish
There is an influx of over 200 million XRP to the exchange, or Bitcoin is sharply correcting. The price loses support at $3.15 and plunges to $2.60–$2.90. Tactic: close longs at $3.10, look for a new entry point at $2.70 after confirming the reversal.

Expectations for 1 – 3 months

Most likely — a smooth consolidation in the range of 3.00–3.80 $: the effect of the ETF is already priced in, the market is waiting for new catalysts.

There is a chance to see a rally to $4.50–5.00. For this, additional drivers are needed: Ripple's victory in the appeal, a large bank connecting to XRPL, or the continuation of the excitement around crypto ETFs.

A pullback to the $2.50 zone remains less likely and would require a strong "risk-off" across the alt market.

Working levels and risk management

It's convenient to look for entries in the range of 3.30–3.35 $.

The hard stop-loss is in the zone of 3.10–3.15 $ ( just below the 20-EMA of the four-hour chart and the volume cluster of buyers).

Targets: $3.70 as near-term, then $4.00 and $4.20 with the development of bullish momentum.

The recommended position size is no more than 5% of the portfolio, so that the risk per trade does not exceed 1%.

What can "break" the forecast

Massive influx of XRP to exchanges ( more than 200 million per day ) — a signal of a possible dump.

The sharp decline of Bitcoin by more than 15% in two days.

New SEC claims against exchanges trading XRP.

Technical issues with the XRPL 2.3.0 update.

Result
XRP is trying to hold above the historical level of 3.70 $. Moving averages, whale statistics, and ETF drivers indicate buyer dominance, but volatility remains high. A hard stop around 3.10 $ allows for a risk/reward ratio ≥ 2 even with the current fluctuations.