The Hong Kong real estate Whale has liquidated! The mainland real estate market is very likely to experience a continuous fall for more than 5 years in the future 📉

🇭🇰 Checked the current situation of the housing rental and sales ratio in Hong Kong:

The latest statistics show that the gross yield for Q2 2025 is approximately 3.9%, with the top configuration segment for medium-sized units reaching around 3.6%. CBRE data also indicates that the rental yields for most units are slightly higher than the loan interest rates (such as in the range of 3.7%–4.4%).

🇨🇳 Recently, the mainland has also introduced a series of policies to lift restrictions on real estate sales, such as the complete cancellation of sales restrictions in Chengdu last Monday. The current rental to sales ratio is as follows:

For example, in the five major urban areas, the overall rental yield is concentrated in the range of 1.5%–2.9%.

Finally, let's take a general look at the rental-to-sale ratio of housing in first-tier cities in mainland China (based on data from Global Property Guide):

Beijing: Average about 2.66%
Shanghai: Average about 2.68%
Shenzhen: Average approximately 2.64%

Based on the above data, together with the current employment situation, negative population growth, and import and export data, it can be concluded that:

Hong Kong, as the region with the highest rental-to-sale ratio, has encountered a wave of sell-offs, with Li Ka-shing being the first to clear all local properties.
While the current data in the mainland is not optimistic in various aspects, the severely low rental-to-sale ratio, coupled with the depreciation risk associated with the aging of high-rise residential buildings in the future, makes the trend of housing prices evident.