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- Hey Square fam! How many Alpha points have you racked up lately?
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Dare to trade. Dare to win.
🚨 U.S. Treasury just raised its Q3 borrowing estimate to $1.007 trillion — up $453B from April’s forecast.
Why?
Lower starting cash and weaker-than-expected net inflows.
Add another $590B expected in Q4, and we’re looking at $1.6T+ in new debt just in the back half of 2025.
In contrast, Q2 borrowing was just $65B — dramatically undershooting forecasts thanks to tight cash management.
What does this mean?
The U.S. is entering a phase of rapid re-leveraging into year-end.
Higher issuance = upward pressure on yields.
And for crypto markets? Liquidity dynamics will matter more than rate guidance.
Ignore the rates. Watch the balance sheet.
#USTreasury # DebtIssuance #Macro # Bitcoin #CryptoMarkets # LiquidityWatch #YieldCurve # FiscalPolicy