The situation of the US election is subtly changing, and Trump's approval rating surpasses Harris.

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the latest data from market prediction platforms shows that Trump's approval ratings are gradually rising, currently at 53%, while his main competitor Harris has an approval rating of 46%. This change has attracted wide attention, especially in the financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. The rise in Trump's approval ratings reflects his advantages in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party cohesion, while also revealing the challenges Harris faces in the campaign.

This article will delve into the key factors that have led to the rise in Trump’s approval ratings, including the Democratic Party's economic policies, the shift in attitudes among centrist voters, the influence of key state political figures, and the support for Trump from the cryptocurrency industry, to help readers gain a more comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.

1. Harris's economic policy sparks controversy

The economic policies proposed by Harris are the core of her campaign; however, these policies have sparked widespread controversy in American society, especially among centrist voters.

1. Controversy of Price Control Policies

The price control measures proposed by Harris aim to limit companies' pricing power on essentials through legislative means. However, many economists and policy experts question their feasibility, arguing that this could create market distortions, leading to supply chain issues and shortages of goods. Media reports have pointed out that such policies might undermine the balance of supply and demand in the market, potentially leading to black markets and hoarding. These concerns have weakened Harris's support among centrist voters, particularly those concerned with economic stability and market freedom.

2. Challenges of Housing Policy

Harris proposed a plan to build a large number of affordable housing for the middle class to address the housing shortage. However, the execution cost of this policy is extremely high, and its economic feasibility and actual effectiveness have been widely questioned. For example, she promised to build 3 million units of affordable housing during her first term, but the sources of funding and details of policy implementation have not been clearly outlined. This uncertainty has made moderate voters uneasy and has also raised doubts about Harris's credibility in policy execution.

3. Attraction and Limitations for the Middle Class

Harris's economic policy focuses on improving the quality of life for the middle class, particularly emphasizing increasing the child tax credit and controlling healthcare costs. However, the long-term sustainability and funding sources of these policies remain unresolved. Additionally, Harris attempts to combine economic policy with social justice issues, but this approach has raised concerns among conservatives and some moderates, who believe it may further expand government power and increase social and economic uncertainty.

4. Overall Impact on the Election Situation

Overall, Harris's economic policies, while demonstrating concern for the middle class and low-income groups, have failed to effectively increase her support among centrist and economically liberal voters due to the radical nature of the policy design and lack of execution details. On the contrary, these voters may be more inclined to support a clearer position and more pragmatic policies from Trump.

2. The Attitudes of Moderate Voters Are Unstable

Centrist voters play a key role in U.S. elections. Against the backdrop of controversies surrounding Harris's economic policies, support for her among centrist voters has begun to decline. In contrast, while Trump's economic policies are also controversial, his clear positions on tax cuts and economic stimulus are more in line with the expectations of centrist voters regarding economic development.

Trump's support for the free market and the economic measures he took during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, gained recognition from some centrist voters. In contrast, Harris's economic policies are considered too radical, especially regarding price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to increase support among centrists.

3. The Influence of Key Political Figures in Swing States

The absence of the governor of a certain state at the Democratic Party meeting has had a negative impact on Harris's campaign. As a key swing state, the attitudes of its voters are crucial for the outcome of the national election. The governor's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategies, and this discontent could further weaken Harris's support in the state.

In this situation, voters may doubt Harris's campaigning ability and party cohesion, leading them to support the more certain Trump. This not only affects Harris's prospects in the state but also indirectly impacts her performance in other swing states. For Harris, ensuring party unity and support in key states is crucial for campaign success, but this event undoubtedly increases her challenges in that regard.

4. Trump's Interaction with the Crypto Industry

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in his rising election rates. Although Trump initially had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies, he gradually changed his stance and began to actively support the crypto industry as the market developed.

In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to publicly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced that it would accept donations in various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. This move not only showcases his openness towards cryptocurrencies but also establishes a closer connection with the crypto community.

The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic move that not only expands Trump's voter base but also attracts young voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of traditional financial systems. These voters often have a strong identification with decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation, and by accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump sends them a clear signal: he supports this emerging field and is willing to advocate for it politically.

In addition, Trump made a series of policy commitments that further solidified his position in the crypto community. He stated that if elected again, he would promote the inclusion of Bitcoin in the United States' strategic reserves and consider using Bitcoin to address some national debt issues. Although these proposals sparked widespread controversy in mainstream finance, they received a warm response within the crypto community.

This supportive attitude has gained widespread recognition in the crypto community. Compared to Harris, Trump's position in the cryptocurrency field is clearer and more proactive, allowing him to gain a large number of supporters in this emerging market. Practitioners and investors in the cryptocurrency industry are very sensitive to market prospects, and they are more willing to support a candidate who holds an open attitude towards the crypto industry. Trump's position has obviously won him the support of this part of the electorate and boosted his approval ratings.

5. The Influence of Cryptocurrency Companies in Elections

According to reports, nearly half of corporate political donations during the 2024 election cycle come from cryptocurrency companies. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates whose interests align with their own. The cryptocurrency industry's support for Trump is not only reflected in rhetoric but also materially affects the election through financial aid.

This corporate-level support further consolidates Trump's position in the crypto community and related industries. As more crypto companies and individual investors funnel funds into political action committees supporting Trump, his financial and promotional advantages in the election are strengthened, which directly boosts his odds in prediction markets.

Conclusion

The rise in Trump's approval ratings is the result of multiple factors working together. Harris's economic policies have sparked controversy, especially among moderate voters, making it difficult for her to gain support. The movements of political figures in key states have exacerbated concerns about party division, further weakening Harris's support in those states. Meanwhile, Trump's supportive stance towards the crypto industry has earned him wide recognition in this emerging market. Additionally, political donations from crypto companies have provided strong support for Trump's campaign.

In the coming months, Trump and Harris will face significant challenges. They need to continually adjust their strategies to garner more voter support, especially in key swing states. For Trump, continuing to solidify his position in the crypto industry and expanding his appeal to moderate voters will be crucial for maintaining his lead. Meanwhile, Harris needs to find a breakthrough to regain the trust of moderate voters while strengthening party unity to face the upcoming climax of the electoral battle.

Regardless of the final outcome, this election will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market in the United States and globally. For investors and market participants, closely monitoring the policy directions of the two candidates will be key to formulating future investment strategies.