Crypto market rise analysis: Is alt season coming?

Recently, the crypto market has welcomed a wave of comprehensive rise. On June 22, after a deep correction of mainstream coins, the market immediately launched a new round of significant increase. Unlike before, this rise is not limited to a few mainstream tokens; many long-dormant tokens have also performed excellently.

To gain a deeper understanding of market trends, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of 403 USDT spot trading pairs on a major trading platform, covering the period from June 22 to July 15, 2025.

Overall Market Performance

Analysis shows that 94.8% of tokens exhibited a rise during this period, with an average increase of 30.38% and a median of 25.92%. This data is significantly better than the rebound in April.

Specifically:

• 7 altcoins rose over 100%, with a maximum of 335%
• 34 altcoins have risen between 50% and 100%.
• 84.6% of tokens have a rise of less than 50%
• 307 altcoins have risen by more than Bitcoin ( 15.31% )

Characteristics of the top 20 tokens by rise:

• Market Cap: Mainly small cap ( < 100 million ) and mid cap ( 1-10 billion )
• Category: Mainly MEME, AI, and DeFi, with infrastructure also showing impressive performance.
• Ecosystem: Mainly distributed across the three major public chains of Ethereum, BSC, and Solana.

Industry Classification Performance

• MEME coins lead the way, with an average rise of 42.2%
• Infrastructure categories followed closely, with a rise of 40.98%
• GameFi has emerged remarkably, with an average rise of 35.15%
• DEX, AI, and smart contract platforms have performed well.
• The performance of RWA-related tokens is平平, with a rise of 11.94%.
• Wallet tokens fell against the trend by 3.09%

Public Chain Ecosystem Performance

1. Solana: 39.41%
2. Base: 33.86%
3. Arbitrum: 31.42%
4. Ethereum: 31.14%
5. BSC: 28.41%
6. Avalanche: 10.86%

Relationship between Market Value and Rise

This round of rise shows a general increase characteristic, with low correlation to market capitalization size:

• Market capitalization ( > 1 billion USD ): Average rise 33.93%
• Market cap ( 1-10 billion USD ): Average rise 29.45%
• Small market cap ( <1 billion USD ): Average rise of 30.41%

Token Issuance Time and Performance

• Tokens issued in 2024 performed the best, with an average rise of 42.76%.
• In 2023, the issuance of tokens ranked second, with an average rise of 34.57%.
• The performance of tokens issued in 2019, 2025, and 2018 is also quite good.
• The performance of tokens issued in 2017 and 2021-2022 was relatively poor.

How far are we from the real "alt season"?

Despite the overall rise in the market, there is still a gap compared to a typical "alt season":

• Only 7 altcoins have broken through their 2024 highs
• 38 tokens are still more than 90% away from the 2024 peak.
• 146 altcoins are more than 80% away from their 2024 peak.
• 302 altcoins are more than 50% away from their 2024 peak.

Most tokens need to rise at least another time to return to the price level of 2024. This may indicate that the alt season still has huge potential, but it is currently difficult to determine whether this round of rise is a flash in the pan or the beginning of a new bull market.