The crypto market is expected to welcome a trend reversal, follow the short-term capital flow to seize alts opportunities.

1. The macro environment and the crypto market are gradually improving

1. Signs of easing tariff policy

Recently, Trump publicly stated that the tariffs on Chinese goods in the United States are too high and is expected to significantly reduce the tax rates. This marks a clear easing of his attitude towards tariff policy, leading to a decrease in market volatility.

2. Expectations of loose monetary policy

The current market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in June, with a total of 3 cuts throughout the year, which may inject new liquidity into the market.

3. Crypto-friendly policies are being gradually promoted.

The United States is advancing the establishment of a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and "U.S. digital asset reserve," with several states also promoting Bitcoin state reserve bills. Two stablecoin bills are under review, and they are expected to be passed and implemented in the second half of 2025. The new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is seen as friendly towards the encryption industry and is expected to reduce enforcement actions against encryption enterprises.

4. BTC market trend turns bullish

Recently, BTC has performed better than the US stock market, showing certain safe-haven properties. Technical indicators have shown bottom signals, and the MACD fast and slow lines have crossed above the zero axis, indicating a market trend shift from bearish to bullish.

2. ETH May Lead Altcoin Trend Reversal

1. On-chain data analysis

The number of profitable ETH addresses has dropped to around 35%, lower than the bear market level of 2022. The MVRV indicator has fallen to 0.8, clearly entering an oversold state. Cost distribution shows a large number of long-term holders' chips around the $1850 mark.

2. Contract Market Analysis

The total amount of ETH contract positions is $21.8 billion, with an OI/MC ratio of about 10%, indicating a large contract market size. Recently, the contract positions have shown a positive correlation with prices, and on April 22, the significant increase in contract positions drove the price to break through. In some exchanges, the scale of ETH contracts is several times that of spot reserves, and the derivatives leverage ratio is relatively high.

3. Technical Analysis

Multiple technical indicators for ETH are showing bottoming signals, the candlestick pattern presents a Spring and bullish engulfing, breaking through the EMA20 moving average, with MACD and RSI indicators showing divergence. The price has reached the upper edge of the downward channel and horizontal resistance level, attempting to break through.

3. Altcoin Opportunity Mining

1. NEIROETH (Meme track )

• Market cap of 61 million USD, 3-day increase of over 200%
• The contract trading is active, with OI/MC reaching 13.8 times.
• Large holders have a higher long position, showing an overall bullish trend.
• The short liquidation volume far exceeds the long, mainly liquidating short positions.

2. ZEREBRO (AI track )

• Market cap of 76.85 million dollars, 24-hour increase of 165%
• Contract open interest increased by 300% in 24 hours, OI/MC approximately 65%
• The funding rate is positive, and the large holders' long-to-short ratio is 1.4, indicating a bullish outlook.
• CVD continues to rise, spot momentum is insufficient.

4. Summary

The current macro environment is improving, BTC has broken through a key position, and ETH is at a critical support-resistance exchange position. If it breaks through, a trend reversal may occur. Key attention should be paid to alts with data anomalies, based on chip structure and contract data to mine potential opportunities. The crypto market is expected to welcome more upward trends.