Who does the non-farm payroll save? It's all about one word: fabricate!

Originally, the market expected the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September to be less than 40%, but once the non-farm data was released, it shot up to 80%. Doesn't that solidly confirm a rate cut in September?

1. New jobs added are less than 100,000
In July, the United States reported a non-farm payroll increase of 73,000, which was below the market expectation of 104,000.

If we ignore the revised data from the past few months, we would think that the U.S. job market has finally begun to weaken.

After all, the number of new jobs added in the US over the past 8 months has exceeded expectations, all above 100,000. Even if it's 70,000, that's still acceptable, right?

Moreover, the unemployment rate in July is only 4.2%, which is not a big difference.

So, why has the market reacted so strongly?
You can look back at the data from May and June, which were surprisingly better than expected.

The data in May was 144,000 people, and the data in June was 147,000 people.
So, what will the data from May to June look like when the latest data is announced in July?

Revised down to 19,000 in May and revised down to 14,000 in June, a total revision down of 258,000 over the two months.

Where have all the people gone? Has it turned into a digital game?
Moreover, the employment level has increased by 14,000 people, comparable to the situation during the pandemic in 2020, which did not occur in other years.

Ask, is this data outrageous or not?

Even the U.S. Labor Department had to clarify that the corrections over the past two months have exceeded normal levels.

Who would believe you if you say there are no ghosts in your heart?

A large part of the factors comes from the government's employment adjustments.
The June data exceeded expectations, and at that time we mentioned that government employment is key. Moreover, in the past six months, government employment has been surprisingly good, especially in the context of layoffs by the Government Efficiency Committee.

Now, the revised data has gone directly downhill. New employment in April and June has both turned negative.

You say it's outrageous or not.

2. The US dollar plummeted below 99
The US dollar has been quite strong during this period.

On one hand, Trump's tariff trade policy has increasingly succeeded in achieving its goals.

On the other hand, a lot of data from the United States is performing well.

The US dollar index briefly rose above 100 in the past two days.

As a result, a big move came, directly dropping below 99.

Gold is also excited, after being suppressed for too long, especially with the significant adjustments in the past couple of days.

This held breath has finally been released.

The US Treasury is in free fall, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping directly by more than 10 basis points, falling below 4.3% and approaching the 4.2% level.

3. Has the interest rate cut been realized?
Originally, the market expected the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September to be less than 40%, but with the release of the non-farm data, it has jumped to nearly 80%.

Isn't that a clear indication of a rate cut in September?

It was originally expected that there would be a rate cut once in October.

After the interest rate cut in September, the market believes there will be further rate cuts.

So, it was originally very strong, and interest rates might not be cut in September, as the data is good and employment is also good.

Just like how the unexpected rate cut of 50 basis points last September occurred, now that a rate cut is imminent, the data suddenly turned bad.

So brothers, who does the non-farm payroll save?