The US non-farm payroll data for July shocked the market with a big dump. The number of new jobs added was only 73,000, far below the expected 104,000, and sharply decreased by half compared to last month's 147,000. Such data should have been favourable information for long positions.

However, the market performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum was unexpected. They experienced a brief rebound after the data was released, but quickly fell back within half an hour. Bitcoin dropped to a low of 112722, and Ethereum also fell below the 3,431 mark. The entire cryptocurrency market once again staged the "long positions trap".

This market reaction seems to confirm the views of some analysts: poor non-farm data does not necessarily lead to a market surge. A real rise may only occur after the market fully digests the interest rate cut expectations and the funds are repriced.

What forces are influencing the market? There are three main factors worth paying attention to:

Firstly, although the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve seems to be warming on the surface, it is actually still constrained. Despite CME data showing that the probability of a rate cut in September soared to 72%, statements from senior Federal Reserve officials indicate that they will not easily change their policy stance due to a decline in monthly employment data. This attitude effectively offsets the Favourable Information brought by the non-farm data.

Secondly, market sentiment has not fully recovered, and on-chain funds are still continuously flowing out. According to Lookonchain data, in the past 24 hours, large wallet addresses have net flowed out a significant amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Notably, a well-known wallet transferred 4,850 Bitcoins to a large exchange, which directly broke the short-term support level.

These factors have collectively led to significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Investors need to closely monitor market trends and operate cautiously to respond to potential further fluctuations.