2025/8/3 #ETH# $ETH Current trend analysis: downtrend, may enter oversold rebound in the short term.

Core basis:
1. Price Trend:
The price has continuously fallen from the high of 3941 on July 28 to the lowest point of 3354.28 on August 3 (a drop of nearly 15%).
The recent rebound is weak (3419.73) and has not been able to break through the previous high, forming a lower high structure.
2. MACD Indicator:
The histogram continues to be negative and is expanding (latest -23.13)
Both DIF and DEA are below the zero axis and in a divergent state (-96.39/-73.26)
Show strong bearish momentum
3. Moving Average System:
The fast and slow EMA (7/30) has formed a death cross and continues to diverge downwards.
The price is always suppressed by EMA (latest 3509 < EMA7 3606)
4. Trading volume characteristics:
During the decline, multiple volume increases occurred (e.g., 554M on August 1, 532M on August 2).
Rebound with shrinking volume (latest 145M), lacking buying support.
5. RSI Indicator:
Continuously in a weak range (latest 28.67, close to Oversold but not stagnant)
StochRSI_K(13.37) is hovering at a low level, showing insufficient rebound momentum.
Key reversal signal:
On August 2, a large-volume long black candlestick appeared (3383.2, -6.5%), confirming the fall below the key support.
The MACD histogram has created a new low in this phase, with no seen divergence structure.
Operation suggestion:
In the short term, it may enter an oversold rebound, but attention is needed:
1. Can it break through the EMA7 (currently 3606) resistance
2. Has the MACD golden cross signal appeared?
3. Is the rebound trading volume effectively increasing?
If the current volume and price structure is maintained, the downward trend may continue, with the next support level around the 3300-3250 range. It is recommended to wait for clearer reversal signals (such as a strong bullish candlestick breaking through EMA7 + MACD turning positive) before considering a long position.