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Recently, the policy direction of major Central Banks around the world has attracted widespread attention in the market. The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to maintain the current level of interest rates in last week's meeting, keeping the upper limit of the federal funds rate target range at 4.50%. This decision aligns with the market's general expectations, but it has also sparked some controversy.
It is worth noting that this time the Federal Reserve's decision saw the largest policy divergence in over 30 years, with 9 members in favor of keeping the interest rate unchanged and 2 members holding opposing views. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated after the meeting that the committee will continue to monitor economic data, changes in outlook, and risk balance to determine the future direction of policy. Regarding the market's widespread concern about the possibility of a rate cut in September, Powell emphasized that no decisions will be made in advance, which has reduced market expectations for a rate cut in September from 60% to 45%.
At the same time, there have been some notable changes in the U.S. labor market. The non-farm payrolls in July showed a significant decline, and the employment data for May and June was also revised downward substantially. This data could impact the future policy decisions of the Central Bank.
In Asia, the Bank of Japan has also chosen to maintain the current Interest Rate level. However, the Bank of Japan holds a relatively optimistic view on the economic outlook, raising its inflation and economic growth forecasts for this year. This move reflects the Bank of Japan's confidence in the recovery of the domestic economy.
Looking ahead, the market will closely monitor the "reciprocal tariff" policy that the United States began implementing on August 7, as well as the diplomatic efforts of the United States to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict before August 8. These events could have significant implications for the global economy and financial markets.
Overall, central banks around the world are cautiously weighing inflation pressures, economic growth, and changes in the labor market to formulate monetary policies that best suit the current economic environment. Investors and economists will continue to closely monitor various economic indicators and policy signals to assess the trends in the global economy.