According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch", market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have risen significantly. The data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is as high as 82.6%, while the probability of maintaining the Interest Rate is only 17.4%. This significant change in expectations has attracted widespread attention from the financial markets.

Further observing the expectations for the coming months, data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the Intrerest Rate unchanged until October has dropped to 4.2%, while the cumulative probabilities for a decrease of 25 basis points and 50 basis points are 33.1% and 62.7%, respectively. This indicates that the market generally believes the Federal Reserve will take action to lower interest rates within the year.

It is worth noting that the next two FOMC meetings of the Federal Reserve will be held on September 17 and October 29, and the decisions made at these meetings will directly affect market trends.

The main reasons for the sharp changes in market expectations include: First, the latest released U.S. non-farm payroll data for July performed poorly, with only 73,000 new jobs added, far below market expectations. Secondly, the employment data for May and June also faced significant downward revisions, which further strengthened concerns about an economic slowdown. Additionally, the news of Federal Reserve Board member Quigley resigning has also sparked market speculation about possible changes in Federal Reserve policy.

It is worth mentioning that before the release of these messages, the market's expectation probability for a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September was only 41.3%. Such a significant shift in expectations reflects an intensified concern among market participants regarding the economic outlook of the United States.

This series of changes has not only affected traditional financial markets but has also attracted the attention of the cryptocurrency market. Investors generally believe that if the Federal Reserve indeed lowers interest rates in September, it may stimulate demand for risk assets, thereby driving the rise of the cryptocurrency market.

However, we also need to note that the Federal Reserve's decisions are not entirely dependent on market expectations. When formulating monetary policy, the central bank needs to consider multiple factors such as inflation, employment, and economic growth. Therefore, despite significant changes in market expectations, the Federal Reserve's final decision still carries uncertainty. Investors should remain cautious when making investment decisions and closely monitor future economic data and statements from Federal Reserve officials.