The TON frenzy subsides but the big moves continue: Is it the bubble bursting, or is the super gateway settling down?

Introduction

In the third quarter of 2024, the TON blockchain rapidly exploded with the traffic entry from Telegram, as the Tap-to-Earn mini-games attracted hundreds of millions of users, creating a miracle of on-chain growth. At the same time, the token generation events of several TON ecosystem projects also generated a strong wealth effect, making "TON/Telegram" leap to become the hottest narrative center in Web3.

However, after the fervor, TON is entering a cooling period that warrants caution. Similar to the usual Web3 narratives, will it be consolidation or a return to zero after the bubble? Is it a temporary pause in traffic, or is the value conversion yet to come? At this juncture, we hope to reassess whether TON has the long-term potential to become a "super on-chain entrance" by using detailed data, ecological evolution paths, and technological stack layouts as our entry point.

1. After the Tap-to-Earn Boom: The Cooling of TON's Popularity and Decline in Data

According to the official TON website, TON( The Open Network) is a decentralized open internet designed to bring 500 million people on-chain, built using technology developed by the community at Telegram. Backed by the Web2 social platform Telegram, which has nearly 1 billion users, TON indeed has the potential to achieve its goal of bringing 500 million people to the on-chain world, and has achieved tremendous success in 2024.

1. Toncoin(TON Token) has a maximum market value exceeding $25B, ranking in the Top 10 of crypto asset market capitalization;
2. Tap to earn mini-game Hamster Kombat officially disclosed that it attracted over 300 million users;
3. The TON Blockchain reached a maximum of 700k+ new addresses in a single day, with daily active addresses exceeding 1.657M;
4. The market value of multiple Telegram mini-game assets exceeds $500M, and the on-chain DeFi TVL surged by as much as 5,500% in 2024......

The dual miracle of traffic and wealth has made TON one of the absolute focal points of the Web3 narrative in 2024. However, similar to previous Web3 booms, short-term surges are often accompanied by data declines. The TON ecosystem is currently experiencing a phase of "narrative cooling period": as shown in Chart 1, whether it is the number of new wallets added daily, active addresses, or the TVL and trading volume of core DEX (Stone.fi and Dedust), all have significantly declined from their peak levels. Although there have been some short-term peaks during this period, most are temporary rebounds driven by specific projects; from the perspective of the annual trend, multiple indicators have returned to the levels prior to the narrative launch.

However, it is not entirely a pessimistic signal. The number of non-zero balance wallets in the Jetton Wallet( is still steadily increasing, indicating that the accumulation of basic users is ongoing, although the growth rate has clearly slowed down. Meanwhile, the number of NFT minting is also maintaining growth, suggesting that the on-chain application ecosystem is still being continuously promoted.

On the other hand, from the keyword trends of Google Trends, the overall search popularity of TON is gradually declining, particularly the attention to the ecosystem itself has decreased significantly. In contrast, the market's attention to Token prices remains stronger.

![TON hype recedes but big moves continue: is it the bubble dissipating, or is the super entrance settling?])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-5f8c91440942ba9e41238c3e1c34f615.webp(

However, a decline in data does not necessarily mean the end of the narrative. Similar examples are not uncommon: Bitcoin once experienced on-chain overload due to the popularity of inscriptions, but ultimately the activity returned to a relatively stable level; Solana and Base, after experiencing a data halving, welcomed a return of users and reached new highs again, accompanied by technical optimizations and ecosystem advancements.

Does TON also have the ability to achieve a deep transformation from traffic to value after the hype subsides? Is it a temporary dormancy, or will it ultimately become a "narrative relic"? The answer will ultimately be determined by actions. In the following content, we will analyze the changes that are quietly occurring in TON "after the tide recedes" from aspects such as organizational strategy, ecological construction, technological upgrades, and narrative transformation.

II. Major Moves Frequent: Team Restructuring, Compliance and New Markets, Large-scale Infrastructure Development

Since the launch of TON on a certain trading platform in August 2024, its narrative has entered a new phase. On the surface, the excitement has cooled, but in reality, it is a period of accelerated layout: including team restructuring, exploration of regulatory compliance, deep integration with Telegram, expansion of the technology stack, as well as developer incentives and capital injection aimed at the global market.

) 2.1 High-level Replacement and Compliance Efforts: TON Accelerating Mainstream Path

At the beginning of 2025, the personnel adjustments at the TON Foundation sent a clear signal: globalization and compliance will become the core strategic directions for the coming years.

On January 15, former board member and founder of Kingsway Capital, Manuel Stotz, was appointed as the new president of the TON Foundation. Kingsway is a well-established investment firm that manages billions of dollars in assets for U.S. investors, and Stotz's background brings a strong signal of "traditional capital markets" to TON. According to the official announcement, he will work alongside former president and current board member Steve Yun to promote TON's international expansion, with a focus on the U.S. market------a vibrant yet highly regulated region that is seen as a key battleground in TON's strategy.

On April 24, the TON Foundation further appointed Maximilian Crown, co-founder of MoonPay, as CEO. MoonPay is a leading global cryptocurrency payment infrastructure company, having obtained compliance licenses in jurisdictions such as the United States, Australia, and the Netherlands. Crown has extensive global operational experience and compliance handling capabilities, and his appointment is widely seen as a significant step for TON to officially embrace regulation and move towards global mainstream adoption.

It is worth noting that Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram and an early promoter of the TON blockchain, was once detained in August 2024 due to Telegram's alleged regulatory violations, returning to the public eye only in March 2025. Although the event has no conclusive outcome yet, it coincides closely with the strategic adjustments of the TON Foundation, which may have indirectly prompted the team to place greater emphasis on regulatory issues, clearing obstacles for subsequent global implementation.

Recently, the TON Foundation has been actively communicating with U.S. regulatory agencies. According to the TON ecosystem report, the TON self-custody wallet is set to launch in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2025. In March 2025, the TON Foundation disclosed that several venture capital firms hold over $400 million in Toncoin. This can also be seen as important evidence of TON's transformation towards compliance and globalization.

From the global distribution of Telegram users, if TON wishes to convert them into Web3 users, it must comply with the regulatory requirements for crypto assets in various countries. Otherwise, it will not only be difficult to implement applications in key markets, but it may also pose potential legal and business risks to Telegram itself.

In fact, TON's global expansion has already begun. Starting from November 2023, TON has launched phased promotion in several African countries, and will subsequently expand to multiple markets in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, paving the way for future global compliance.

2.2 TON × Telegram: Deep integration, binding ecological entry

In January 2025, Telegram officially designated TON as the sole blockchain infrastructure for its continuously evolving mini app ecosystem, with the core being the TON Connect protocol that seamlessly connects Telegram mini apps with blockchain wallets, thereby simplifying user interactions with decentralized applications within the messaging app. This exclusive protocol positions TON as the actual blockchain layer for Telegram's nearly 1 billion users. This makes TON poised to become the "Web3 version of WeChat Pay," fully leveraging Telegram's massive network effects.

In terms of the payment system, Telegram commits to exclusively accept Toncoin as a non-statutory payment currency within its ecosystem, applicable to scenarios including Telegram Stars, Premium membership, advertising system ### Telegram Ads (, and payment gateway services ) Telegram Gateway (. Developers and channel operators can directly receive income through Toncoin, initially establishing an internal payment and revenue distribution system based on Toncoin.

At the same time, payment service provider RedotPay has supported Toncoin and USDt) on the USDT version ( on the TON chain and has integrated mainstream payment methods, making it usable at over 130 million offline merchants worldwide, further expanding TON's payment capabilities in the real world.

The TON Space wallet has recently introduced the ability to pay transaction fees using Telegram Stars. This is essentially a form of crypto "abstraction" solution that allows users to complete transactions without needing to understand complex on-chain operations. This approach differs from traditional chain abstraction solutions, as it not only relies on the massive entry traffic but also promotes the transformation of on-chain applications towards "lifestyle" and "normalization". According to the official plan, starting from the second quarter of 2025, users in the United States will be able to directly experience TON wallet services within Telegram, further bridging the gap between Web2 consumption scenarios and on-chain asset management.

) 2.3 Ecology: From Mini Game Craze to Diversified Track Expansion

The first wave of the TON ecosystem boom is primarily driven by mini games. Under the combination of "airdrop incentives + easy to start," users quickly flock in. For example, the airdrop of "Hamster Kombat" in September 2024 peaked at 300 million monthly active users in July, but by November, only 52 million active users remained, showing a user loss of over 86% in just a few months. While the simple and replicable game mechanics can create a "growth illusion" in the short term, they struggle to achieve long-term user retention, exposing the homogenization issue in the early stages of the ecosystem.

![The TON craze is retreating but major actions continue: is it the bubble bursting, or is the super entrance settling?]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-a47071729b4fe283c0688c27e99317a4.webp(

In the face of this situation, TON is focusing on expanding the builder ecosystem on one hand, while accelerating the layout of infrastructure on the other. In April 2025, TON announced a strategic partnership with Chinese gaming giant KingNet), which has over 100 million users(, and held the first large-scale game developer conference in Asia, attracting dozens of studios from the WeChat ecosystem to explore how to build Web3 applications based on Telegram and TON.

With the launch of the Telegram App Center feature, users can directly explore integrated third-party applications within the platform. An increasing number of TON ecosystem applications are making it onto the recommended list, no longer limited to games but also including social, payment, DeFi, NFT, and other dimensions, marking the preliminary expansion of its application ecosystem.

According to statistics, among the 187 TON projects recorded, about 14% focus on infrastructure. In addition to underlying services such as oracles and wallets, there are also development support platforms like TONXAPI and Play Deck, which lower the technical barriers for new builders and accelerate the sustainable development of the ecosystem.

In addition to gaming, the TON ecosystem is expanding into multiple new narrative tracks: including PayFi, RWA) which will be detailed below (, as well as applications in AI, contract trading ) Perp DEX (, DePIN, and more. For example:

• Jointly launched a TON perpetual contract DEX incentive activity with a certain perpetual contract DEX;
• Launching the bounty program with the AI Agent operating system ElizaOS;
• Collaborate with the aggregator protocol Jupiter to promote the development of the TON ecosystem aggregator......

The ecological potential has also attracted a positive response from institutional funds. In September 2024, some institutions invested $30 million in TON, followed by another $10 million investment the next month, promoting the development of the Telegram application. In early 2025, former president of the TON Foundation, Steve Yun, launched the venture capital fund TVM Ventures, with an initial scale of $100 million, focusing on supporting DeFi, PayFi, and underlying infrastructure projects, further strengthening TON's attractiveness to developers and its ecological moat.

) 2.4 Technology Upgrade: Advanced Performance and Scalability

According to the roadmap released by TON for the first half of 2025, the core goal of its technological iteration is to alleviate congestion and enhance scalability and stability. This round of updates covers four major directions, reflecting TON's evolutionary logic towards a "high-load, high-frequency application blockchain:"

1. Accelerator Mainnet Upgrade

This is the most significant architectural upgrade since the establishment of TON, aimed at achieving the "Infinite Sharding ###" mechanism, and significantly improving the network's stability and scalability. Core improvements include:

• Shard chain tracking optimization: Nodes will only need to track the main chain and its related