Today is August 6, 2025. Let's get to the conclusion first: I believe this bull run cycle will end by the end of this year.

Why do you say that? The core reason is the inflation in the United States. After Trump took office, inflation has somewhat resurfaced, and the possibility of interest rate cuts is becoming less and less likely. In other words, relying on monetary easing to support the market in 2026 is almost unrealistic. Therefore, looking forward from now, Bitcoin may peak in October, then give altcoins and ETH two months of performance time, with December possibly being the final climax of this wave of market, followed by a downward trend. All the shows in the crypto circle have already been performed, and the audience has been gradually leaving, so there is no need for the host to continue this feast.
You might say that the Federal Reserve may not withstand the pressure of employment and start to loosen monetary policy, or that Trump could arrange for his own people to handle it. The reality is that the Federal Reserve has historically done such things: prioritizing employment and listening to the president, but it all ended in failure. So even if the new chairman is someone chosen by Trump himself, it is unlikely that he would go all out to support the market.
Looking back at this bull run, Bitcoin rose from 15,000 to 120,000, which is definitely a bull run. However, if you look at the trends of most altcoins, they resemble more of a rebound after the crash of the bull run in 2021, rather than a comprehensive bull.
The real starting point of this market cycle was when the Federal Reserve hinted at interest rate cuts. A large amount of smart money entered the market early, pushing Bitcoin from 1.5 to 40,000. After that, the approval of ETFs led to substantial inflows, lifting Bitcoin from 40,000 to 70,000. Therefore, we can roughly determine that the average holding cost for American institutions is around 50,000. During this period, it was also the only time within the entire cycle when retail investors could make money. Even in the interest rate cut cycle from September to November 2024, retail investors couldn't make a profit, and most of those who got trapped were likely those who entered during that time. As mentioned above, the early cost for US funds is approximately 50,000, so around January 2025, when Bitcoin reaches 100,000, American institutions will start to gradually offload. At this point, we can see the difference in strategies between institutions and wild speculators. Bitcoin will slowly drop from 100,000 to 70,000; although the decline is not significant, the trading volume is huge. Seeing the trading data, exchanges and various altcoin speculators think that the Americans are fleeing, leading to a sharp decline in altcoins starting from late November. After March 2024, retail players in the traditional cryptocurrency space were manipulated by the institutional strategies of US funds, becoming disoriented, and there were hardly any new investors entering to pick up altcoins. As a result, the wild selling from altcoin speculators was very aggressive, fearing they would be stuck with their holdings. After this, the cryptocurrency space was essentially hollowed out, with only a bunch of stagnant projects and retail investors trapped in altcoins.
What to do next? I think there is a high probability of a rate cut in September, and Bitcoin may slowly rise to the previous high under the expectation of a rate cut. In November and December, if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, Bitcoin could surge to 130,000 in October, and altcoins will also have a wave, but it is likely that it will only reach half of the historical high.
By then, the average cost for American institutions will be around 100,000, so they will take the opportunity to sell at a high. However, due to poor liquidity at the end of the year, exchanges, market makers, retail investors, and institutions may all run away together, and American institutions may not be able to sell everything, leaving the remainder to sell in the next round.
From my own judgment, the next cycle won't start until at least the first quarter of 2027. #打榜优质内容#