Bitcoin approaches the $115,000 mark! Narrow oscillations await a breakthrough, on-chain data reveals pullback concerns | Crypto market daily update

Bitcoin approached $115,000 this morning, successfully holding the key support level of the 50-day moving average, with the total market capitalization of the crypto market slightly rising to $3.76 trillion; however, narrow range trading limits the upside potential, on-chain data shows weakened demand and cooling network activity, the options market bets on a pullback by the end of the month, combined with concerns over U.S. election crypto policy trends and Bitcoin centralization risks, leading to uncertainty in the market's short-term trend.

[Market Overview] Bitcoin is in a narrow range of fluctuations, building momentum while awaiting confirmation of the key breakout direction

• Bitcoin price reached around $115,000 early Thursday morning, successfully validating the effectiveness of the rebound from the 50-day moving average (key support level) at the beginning of this month, instilling confidence in holders.
• The current Bitcoin trend is trapped in a narrow range trading pattern, and a clear direction requires waiting for a key level breakthrough: if it loses the support at 112,000 USD (recent low & 50-day moving average), or effectively breaks through the resistance at 120,000 USD (July peak & important integer level), it will determine the subsequent trend.
• The crypto market is experiencing a mild overall recovery, with a total market capitalization increase of nearly 1% to $3.76 trillion, in sync with the rising trend of the Nasdaq 100 index, which is close to its historical highs.
• Altcoins outperform Bitcoin: Ethereum ( ETH ) rises by 2.4%, Ripple ( XRP ) rises by 1.7%, Solana ( SOL ) surges by 3.7%, Dogecoin ( DOGE ) rises by 2.7%, while Bitcoin ( BTC ) only slightly increases by 0.7%.

[On-chain data] Bitcoin demand weakens and enters a cooling period, rebound sustainability is questionable

• On-chain analysis firm Glassnode pointed out that the Bitcoin market has transitioned from the "euphoric phase" to the "cooling phase," with increased selling pressure.
• Key bearish signals appear: Demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs from large institutions and investment funds has significantly weakened, with inflows down nearly a quarter; on-chain network activity has decreased, with on-chain transfer volumes and transaction fees shrinking in tandem.
• Analysts warn that any price rise may be temporary in the absence of fundamental positive catalysts, and investors should be cautious of short-term Bitcoin price pullback risks.

[Derivatives Signal] Options market bets on BTC and ETH pullback before the end of the month

• Options market data reflects trader expectations: a large number of investors are engaging in hedging operations, betting that Bitcoin and Ethereum prices may experience a significant decline before the end of August.
• Analyst Sean Dawson observed that there is protective demand in the market for Bitcoin price falling below the $100,000 level.

[Policy and Risks] US Crypto Policy Trends and Bitcoin Centralization Concerns

1. SEC Clarifies Regulatory Position: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has clearly stated under the "crypto project" (Project Crypto) framework that liquid staking (Liquid Staking) is generally not subject to securities laws, providing a certain level of regulatory clarity for related businesses.
2. Trump Plans to Sign Crypto-Friendly Executive Order: According to the Wall Street Journal citing White House sources, U.S. presidential candidate Trump plans to sign an executive order aimed at penalizing banks that refuse to provide services to cryptocurrency companies, a move seen as a policy signal supporting the crypto industry during his campaign.
3. Bitcoin Centralization and Confiscation Risk Warning: Well-known trader Ton Weiss has issued a warning that a large amount of Bitcoin is concentrated in the hands of major publicly traded companies in the United States, which may lead to increased centralization risk. He is concerned that if a significant economic crisis occurs in the future (such as in 2032-2033), the U.S. government may attempt to confiscate the Bitcoin held by these companies, similar to the historical confiscation of gold.

Conclusion: Although the Bitcoin price holds at key support levels and the overall market is moderately rising, the narrow range of fluctuations, weak signals in on-chain demand, and bearish bets in the options market all cast a shadow over the short-term trend. Investors should pay close attention to changes in institutional capital inflows, the implementation of U.S. election crypto policies, and discussions on the long-term centralization risks of Bitcoin while focusing on key price level breakthroughs. Market volatility may increase, and risk management should be prepared.