Crypto Assets Market Weekly Report: Bitcoin Maintains Rise, US Dollar Index Hits New Low

This week, Bitcoin (BTC) opened at $83,733.07 and closed at $85,177.34, rising 1.72% over the week with a volatility of 4.06%. This marks the second consecutive week of rebound for BTC, but the market lacks upward momentum, and trading volume has significantly shrunk. BTC prices have been running outside of the descending channel for two consecutive weeks and are testing the key technical indicator of the 200-day moving average.

The U.S. government's reciprocal tariff policy has entered its second phase - "negotiation". The preliminary negotiation results with Japan fell short of expectations, putting the U.S. government in a difficult position. Major target countries are taking a tough countermeasure, while secondary target countries are becoming more hardened in their stance; these countries are all adopting a strategy of buying time. In fact, as the U.S. confronts the world on tariff issues, the pressure it faces is also at an unprecedented level.

This Wednesday, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve stated that before considering adjustments to policy positions, the Federal Reserve has the capacity to wait for clearer information. The Federal Reserve's attitude of maintaining the status quo puts the stock market, bond market, and foreign exchange market under triple pressure.

Former U.S. President has repeatedly urged for interest rate cuts and considered dismissing the Chair of the Federal Reserve. However, before any substantial progress is made on this front, we believe that politics, the economy, and the market will continue to operate along rational paths in the medium to long term.

In terms of macroeconomics, consumer confidence remains low, and the business community feels confused about production plans. Wall Street continues to sell off long positions and reduce trading without waiting for assistance from the government or the Federal Reserve.

In the four trading days of this week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones indices all experienced consecutive declines, recording weekly losses of 2.62%, 1.5%, and 1.33% respectively, with trading volume significantly decreasing. The bond market also performed poorly, with the 2-year Treasury yield dropping to 3.7580% and the 10-year yield falling to 4.4960%, still remaining at high levels. The risks of long-term Treasury bonds are evident, with last week's surge of 11.25% reflecting a significant sell-off, leading to a liquidity crisis.

The US Dollar Index has fallen for four consecutive weeks, dropping to 99.171% this week. Funds are flowing from the US to Europe. The decline in the Dollar Index is a result of the stock market falling while the bond market has failed to absorb the outflow of funds. Capital outflow is the situation that the US least wants to see.

The statements from Federal Reserve officials are generally consistent, believing that the economy has not yet deteriorated, but the tariff policy brings significant uncertainty to the decline in inflation and economic development. The Federal Reserve will maintain a wait-and-see attitude until the situation becomes clearer. Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have decreased, currently leaning towards the possibility of the first rate cut in June at a probability of 70.2%, with an expectation of four rate cuts throughout the year.

In the Crypto Assets market, the selling pressure from both short-term and long-term holders continued to weaken this week. The total on-chain selling volume dropped to 107810.75 BTC, with short-term holders accounting for 103713.35 BTC and long-term holders 4097.4 BTC. The net outflow from exchanges reached 19467.31 BTC. The long-term holder group continues to act as a stabilizer, adding nearly 100,000 BTC this week. As prices rebounded, the overall floating loss level of short-term holders fell to 8%.

In terms of capital flow, the stablecoin channel achieved the highest weekly inflow scale since January, exceeding $950 million. The ETF channel net inflow exceeded $10 million, and BTC's recent performance continues to outperform the Nasdaq index.

According to the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator of eMerge Engine, the current value is 0.125, indicating that the market is in a rising relay period.