XRP Price Prediction: Whales bought 900 million XRP in 48 hours, expectations for ETF approval rise to help break key levels.

Driven by the optimistic expectation that the SEC may approve the XRP Spot ETF within the next two months, the price of XRP rebounded 3.18% on Wednesday, closing at $2.9530. On-chain data reveals that whales are accumulating on a large scale, purchasing 900 million XRP within 48 hours, marking the largest record since June 2025. This article provides an in-depth analysis of whale movements, the ETF approval process, key price catalysts, and the outflow pressure faced by Bitcoin ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium due to Fed policy uncertainty, offering investors a comprehensive analysis of the crypto assets market and trading strategy references.

[Whale Movements and Optimism Towards ETF: The Key Driving Force Behind XRP's Rebound] If whale activity reflects market sentiment, then the dynamics on Wednesday, August 20, highlighted potential investor optimism. Amid growing optimism that the SEC will approve the pending XRP spot ETF application within the next two months, the XRP price experienced a rebound. Following the SEC and Ripple's joint motion to dismiss filed on August 7, the delay in the approval of the spot ETF has been dragging down market sentiment. Once the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit approves both parties' request to withdraw the appeal, the door will open for the SEC to approve the spot ETF. However, given that the SEC has delayed other crypto spot ETF applications, the likelihood of approval before October remains low. The SEC has been working with exchanges to establish listing standards for token-based ETFs. BlackRock (BLK), which dominates the crypto ETF space, met with the SEC's crypto working group in May to discuss ETF approval standards.

[Approval Process and Standardization Framework: XRP ETF Prospects Welcome Major Turning Point] Since the BlackRock meeting, plans have emerged to establish a standardized Crypto Assets ETF framework. All three exchanges (Cboe, Nasdaq, NYSE) submitted 19b-4 filings in July. They requested rule changes aimed at allowing commodity-based investment trust shares to be listed and traded under a standardized framework. As the SEC is coordinating with the exchanges, the rule change requests from July indicate that a preliminary consensus has been reached with regulators on this framework. Approval of the 19b-4 filings could expedite the approval of the pending XRP Spot ETF. The key point is that BlackRock may also launch the iShares XRP Trust under the standardized framework, thereby avoiding the lengthy delays experienced during the previous application process. Whale activity highlights the market's optimistic attitude toward the eventual launch of the XRP Spot ETF. On-chain data shows a surge in whale activity, with 900 million XRP acquired within 48 hours, marking the largest accumulation since June 2025.

[XRP Price Outlook: Bullish and Bearish Scenario Analysis Under Multiple Catalysts] XRP rebounded 3.18% on Wednesday, August 20, partially recovering the 6.56% decline from Tuesday, closing at $2.9530. The token outperformed the market (up 2.46%), driving the total crypto market cap to $3.83 trillion. In the short term, XRP's price outlook depends on several key catalysts, including: news regarding the XRP Spot ETF, adoption of XRP as a treasury reserve asset, Ripple's application for a US charter bank license, updates related to SWIFT, and legislative progress. Potential scenario analysis: Bearish scenario: Legislative setbacks, slowing adoption of treasury reserve assets, OCC rejecting the US charter bank license application, legislators protecting SWIFT, or SEC rejecting the XRP Spot ETF. These factors could push XRP below the August 3 low of $2.7254 and may test the $2.5 support level. Bullish scenario: Approval of the XRP Spot ETF, OCC approving the US charter bank license, accelerated adoption of treasury reserve assets, bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, or Ripple eroding SWIFT's share in global remittance business. These factors could drive XRP to break through its historical high of $3.6606 and pave the way for a rise to $5.

【Bitcoin Market Dynamics: Cautious Sentiment Dominates Ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium, ETF Funds Continue to Flow Out】 Despite XRP rebounding due to optimistic sentiment from the approval of the Spot ETF, Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized but failed to reclaim the key level of $115,000 for the first time since August 2. Investors remain cautious ahead of the highly anticipated speech by Fed Chairman Powell on Friday, August 22. On the evening of August 20, the FOMC meeting minutes highlighted members' concerns over tariffs, inflation, and the labor market. The trends in producer and import prices in July may show the early effects of tariffs on U.S. inflation. Producer prices surged 3.3% year-on-year after rising 2.4% in June. Meanwhile, July import prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline in June. Why does the Fed's interest rate guidance affect BTC? If the Fed keeps rates unchanged, borrowing costs may remain high, potentially strengthening the dollar. A delay in rate cuts could impact BTC's value storage status. Conversely, if Fed Chairman Powell supports multiple rate cuts, it could weaken the dollar, lower borrowing costs, and boost demand for BTC and other risk assets.

[Capital Flow and Policy Uncertainty: The US BTC Spot ETF Market Faces Significant Net Outflow] Despite BTC stabilizing on Wednesday, uncertainty regarding Fed Chairman Powell's monetary policy stance has suppressed demand for BTC Spot ETF. According to data from Farside Investors, the U.S. BTC Spot ETF market reported a total net outflow of $523.3 million on August 19, the largest since a net outflow of $812.3 million on August 1. On Wednesday, August 20, the U.S. BTC Spot ETF market may continue the outflow for the fourth consecutive trading day. Key fund flows include: ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported a net outflow of $75.7 million. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) had a net outflow of $9 million. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw a net outflow of $7.5 million. With the fund flow data for BlackRock (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) pending, the total outflow from the U.S. BTC Spot ETF has reached $95.9 million. Whether the continuous four-day outflow can be halted depends on the data from IBIT.

[BTC Price Outlook: Data, Policy, and ETF Fund Flows are Key to Short-Term Trends] BTC rose 1.27% on Wednesday, August 20, partially recovering the previous day's decline of 2.94%, closing at $114,306. Looking ahead, several key events may influence the short-term price trajectory. These include: Fed's monetary policy stance: comments from the Fed at the Jackson Hole symposium and a speech by Fed Chair Powell. Services PMI and US unemployment claims data. Legislative progress on Capitol Hill. BTC spot ETF fund flows. Potential scenario analysis: Bearish scenario: legislative setbacks, rising stagflation risks in the US, hawkish signals from the Fed, and outflows from ETFs. This combination of factors could push BTC down to $110,000 and threaten the psychological support level of $100,000. Bullish scenario: bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, optimistic US data, dovish comments from the Fed, and inflows into ETFs. In this case, BTC could target a historical high of $123,731.

[Key Market Drivers: The Key Factors Deciding Whether XRP and BTC Rebound] Traders should closely monitor the following key developments to determine whether XRP and BTC can rebound: XRP spot ETF-related headlines. Legislative news: "CLARITY Act." US economic data. Fed comments: hawkish or dovish signals. ETF market fund flows: trends in fund flows that are crucial for the supply and demand balance of BTC.

Conclusion: Overall, XRP's strong rebound driven by Whale accumulation and ETF expectations sharply contrasts with BTC's cautious trend in the face of macro uncertainty, revealing two core themes in the current market: active pricing for specific asset positive events and deep concern over global liquidity prospects. XRP's short-term fate is closely tied to the SEC's approval decisions and substantial progress in its ecological applications, while BTC still needs to act according to the Fed's stance, with the clarity of the interest rate path being key to breaking the current deadlock. Investors should adopt differentiated strategies in the current environment: cautiously optimistic towards XRP, closely monitoring ETF-related news and setting stop-losses; while for BTC, patience is required, prioritizing the prevention of potential downside risks from macro hawkish shocks, waiting for clearer policy signals from the Jackson Hole symposium. The sustainability of ETF fund flows remains an important real-time indicator of market sentiment and institutional confidence.