Ethereum (ETH) price prediction: High-level fluctuations hit a key watershed, $3,900 may become a phase top.

Ethereum (ETH) has fallen into a range oscillation after reaching $3,900, with the current price at a critical turning point. A 10% pullback has liquidated over $10 billion in open interest (OI), significantly cooling the market's overheated sentiment. Despite a record outflow of over $500 million in ETH ETFs in a single day and signals of whale address reduction, BlackRock's Buy the Dips of 23,000 ETH (valued at $88 million) shows institutional support, with over 60% of the long positions in mainstream CEX ETH/USDT contracts reflecting bullish sentiment among retail investors. Analysts warn that $3,900 may become a phase top, and the $60 million liquidity pool around $3,500 will be a key level for the battle between bulls and bears.

High-level Consolidation: Textbook Level Pullback Cleans Out Weak Hands Ethereum has entered a sideways consolidation after hitting a high of $3,900, with the current price sitting at a key technical watershed. The 10% pullback from the peak shows classic technical correction characteristics—clearing weak long positions and effectively cooling off the overheated market funding rate.

Hundreds of billions in open contracts evaporated, market risk significantly released On-chain data confirms this deep adjustment: within just ten days, the total open interest (OI) in the cryptocurrency market has plummeted by over 10 billion USD, marking the release of systematic risk in the market. Meanwhile, Ethereum's blockchain has seen a continuous occurrence of realized profits exceeding 1 billion USD in a single day, indicating that this round of pullback is mainly driven by profit-taking rather than panic selling.

Weekly Structure: First Appearance of Bearish Candle Followed by Bullish Counterattack From a technical perspective, Ethereum formed its first complete weekly bearish candle in nearly two months last week, with a pullback of 9.67% from its peak. However, it has rebounded nearly 4% this week, indicating that bullish strength has not yet waned. The resilience shown in a volatile market suggests strong Buy the Dips demand. A typical case: BlackRock bought 23,000 ETH (approximately 88 million USD) in a single day, becoming a clear signal of Smart Money's positioning on the dip.

Key Contradiction: Billion-Level Liquidation vs Whale Sell-off The core issue is: can institutional bottom fishing hedge against the evaporation of up to $10 billion in open contracts? Especially considering that over the past 30 days, the number of Whale Addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH has decreased by 164. According to AMBCrypto's analysis, this tug-of-war between opposing forces will determine the next phase direction for Ethereum. Currently, the proportion of long positions in mainstream CEX ETH/USDT contracts exceeds 60%, indicating that retail investor sentiment is clearly bullish.

Early distribution signals are emerging, with $3,900 becoming a strong resistance It may be premature to simply define a 10% pullback of ETH as a "healthy washout." Early distribution signals have begun to emerge, and the $3,900 level is gradually forming a local top characteristic—this price level needs strong spot buying support to hope for an effective breakout.

ETF Capital Reversal: Daily Outflow Hits 500 Million Record SoSoValue data shows that the ETH spot ETF capital flow has undergone a dramatic change: a single-day net outflow has exceeded 500 million USD, setting a historical record. This marks a fundamental turning point in institutional capital flow, transitioning from stable inflows in July to a complete cooling phase. Synchronization signal: Fidelity transferred 14,978 ETH (approximately 53.6 million USD) to Coinbase Prime, suspected to be preparing for a sell-off at a high. This is a typical smart money profit-taking operation, consistent with the declining trend in market risk appetite.

Battle of Bulls and Bears: 4% Rebound and Liquidation Crisis Coexist Market focus is currently on the 4% rebound of ETH from its low point. If ETF funds continue to flow out combined with whales continuing to reduce their holdings, it may trigger a chain liquidation response—around $3,500 there is a liquidity pool of $60 million. In short, while Ethereum shows rebound momentum, it is indeed walking on a tightrope: facing institutional selling pressure above and a liquidation level threat below. Whether it can hold the $3,500 level will become the core variable determining the mid-term trend.