As of June 25, 2025, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has surged to $106,576.91, up 3.6% in the past 24 hours, significantly rebounding from the previous day’s low of $99,000, re-establishing the fluctuation range of $105,000 - $106,000. This reversal marks the end of the pullback caused by geopolitical tensions over the weekend, and market sentiment is quickly shifting from risk aversion to risk preference.

Geopolitical risks eased, Trump’s remarks become a key catalyst

The core driver of this round of rebound comes from the easing of geopolitical tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on social media that 13 missiles were intercepted and no casualties were reported in recent missile attacks by Iran, describing the conflict as “under control”.

This statement quickly eased market concerns about the escalation of the Middle East conflict, stimulating funds to flow back from safe-haven assets to the cryptocurrency field:

• Bitcoin surged rapidly from below $100,000 within hours of the announcement.
• In social media, the search volume of key words such as “Iran” and “missile” has surged, showing strong correlation with price rebound.
• Global risk assets rebounded simultaneously, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes rising by nearly 1%, while international oil prices fell by 4%

Technical aspects of the long and short game, key resistance becomes the focus

Despite the price recovery, Bitcoin still faces key technical resistance:

• $108,000 has become the current key resistance level (corresponding to the confluence of the 200-day moving average and the downtrend line), this level has formed two clear upper shadows, indicating strong selling pressure.
• The intraday support is focused on $104,606, and if lost, further downside may test $103,232 (50-day moving average) and $101,623
• Analysts point out that if it breaks through $106,171, it is expected to open up to $107,673 and challenge the historical high of $112,000.

On-chain data shows that institutions and long-term holders are actively increasing their holdings during the current rebound, while short-term speculators are taking the opportunity to exit, reflecting a divergence in the market’s medium- to long-term trends.

The market is fully rebounding, with Ethereum leading the altcoins

Bitcoin rebound drives collective recovery of cryptocurrency assets:

• Ethereum (ETH) is performing strongly, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 8%, trading at $2,420.
• The total market value of cryptocurrencies has rebounded to $3.25 trillion, with a significant increase in daily trading volume
• Market capital flow monitoring shows that some safe-haven funds are shifting from crude oil (U.S. oil, Brent oil fell 4% intraday) to cryptocurrency

Macroeconomic policies and regulatory trends shape the medium-term landscape

Apart from geopolitical factors, two major systemic variables will continue to affect the trend of Bitcoin:

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

• The market is heating up expectations for a rate cut in July, with several Fed officials sending dovish signals
• If the rate cut is implemented, the weakening of the US dollar may further boost non-interest-bearing assets such as Bitcoin.

Global Regulatory Framework Improvement

• The legislative process of the U.S. “GENIUS Stablecoin Act” is progressing smoothly
• The EU MiCA regulatory framework has been authorized and is entering a comprehensive implementation phase
• The compliance process is attracting traditional financial institutions to increase their allocation ratio.

Web3 infrastructure breakthrough, laying the foundation for long-term value

By 2025, the evolution of blockchain technology is driving ecosystem evolution from the ground up:

• Zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) technology is booming, with an expected 90% of ZK proofs generated through decentralized networks, significantly reducing verification costs
• The number of Ethereum L2/L3 scaling solutions may exceed 2,000 by the end of the year, with a total scaling factor of over 200 times and a 90% reduction in Gas fees.
• The fusion of AI and blockchain is giving birth to new use cases, and the valuation of the decentralized AI market is expected to reach 30 billion U.S. dollars, significantly increasing the level of smart contract automation.

Outlook

With Bitcoin returning to the key level of $105,000, the market is entering a period of directional decision-making. If it can effectively break through the resistance at $106,171, it will open up the upward space of a new historical high; on the contrary, if geopolitical risks bring about uncertainties, the psychological level of $100,000 will be tested again. The breakthrough progress of Web3 infrastructure—especially the maturity of ZK proof and modular blockchains—is building a solid technical foundation for the next bull market, shifting the narrative of cryptocurrencies from price fluctuations to true value creation.