Ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, analysts predict Bitcoin will break $106,000 or start a new round of pump.

Market Observation

The Fed will announce its June interest rate decision tomorrow morning, and the market is highly focused on the officials' expectations for the number of rate cuts this year as indicated in the dot plot. Some analysts believe that while two rate cuts within the year remain the majority expectation, some officials may lean towards only cutting rates once. If the dot plot shows only one rate cut, or if the Fed chairman indicates that there is no urgency to cut rates, the dollar may strengthen as a result. Currently, traders expect that September may see the first rate cut in 2025.

At the same time, the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran has raised global concerns about oil supply. Reports indicate that the next 24 to 48 hours will be crucial in determining whether the issue can be resolved through diplomatic means. The United States has increased its military presence in the Middle East to respond to the situation. However, some analysts point out that the market's reaction to the tensions in the Middle East is calm, possibly because investors are not overly pricing in the worst possible outcomes.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has experienced a pullback due to geopolitical risks, dipping to around $103,000 at one point, and is currently reported at $105,478. Analysts point out that while the current price range has not confirmed a bottom, it provides a good accumulation opportunity. It is expected that if Bitcoin can break through $106,000, it will initiate a new round of strong rise. Meanwhile, $103,000 serves as a short-term support level, and around $100,000 serves as a lower support level. Additionally, analysts suggest paying attention to the two key resistance levels at $108,951 and $110,406. If Bitcoin can regain above $109,000 with increasing trading volume, a bullish outlook may be considered.

On the Ethereum side, the current price hovers around $2,548, having made multiple attempts to break through the $2,700 resistance recently without success. Some analysts point out that although on-chain data shows that large holders continue to accumulate, bringing long-term bullish signals, the short-term technicals remain complex, requiring a break above $2,600 to reignite upward momentum. Another viewpoint suggests that Ethereum will challenge $2,800, which could subsequently drive other cryptocurrencies to rise.

In terms of market dynamics, the three major U.S. stock indices generally closed lower, and cryptocurrency-related stocks performed weakly. The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS stablecoin regulation bill, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, but the market reacted tepidly, with related concept stocks performing flatly. Some stablecoin concept tokens fell with the overall market, indicating that the market may have already priced in this news. In addition, several accounts on social platforms related to cryptocurrency have been unfrozen. There are multiple rapidly growing projects on-chain, some of which still maintain a high market capitalization.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $105,461, year-to-date rise of 12.71%, daily trading volume of $34.805 billion
• Ethereum: $2,535.82, down 24.03% year-to-date, daily trading volume $22.424 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Market share: Bitcoin 64%, Ethereum 9.3%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 68,397 people liquidated globally, total amount of 32.2 million USD

Today's Outlook

• Purpose XRP ETF will be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange today.
• A certain cryptocurrency platform will launch the second season of token airdrops.
• The airdrop of trading platform Alpha will be conducted in two phases.
• The Fed will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a monetary policy press conference held by the chairman.

Hot News

• The Solana spot ETF planned by VanEck has been registered with the DTCC.
• The US GENIUS Act has been approved by the Senate, making progress in stablecoin legislation.
• Multiple crypto-related social media accounts have been unfrozen.
• Eigen Labs launched a new platform and secured $70 million in investment.
• Canadian listed companies choose Litecoin as a reserve asset
• World Gold Council: 95% of central banks expect gold reserves to pump in the next 12 months.
• Ark Invest reduced its holdings in Circle stocks at a high level, cashing out 51.7 million USD.