Sui Ecosystem Development Status and Token Release Analysis

Since its launch on May 3, Sui, as one of the representative projects of the Move-based public chain, has attracted considerable attention. As an alternative development path outside of Ethereum L2, Sui has sparked quite a bit of controversy, particularly regarding its Token issuance method and release model. Some are concerned that it might repeat the mistakes of ICP, while others believe it could replicate the success of new public chains in 2021.

1. On-chain Data Analysis

1. Total Locked Amount ( TVL )

As of June 13, Sui's TVL is approximately $15.22 million, with DEX Cetus accounting for over 60%. Among all public chains and layer two networks, Sui's TVL ranks 54th. Notably, Sui's TVL peaked at $36.01 million and has currently fallen by more than 50%.

In contrast, the current TVL of another Move ecosystem representative project, Aptos, is $42.11 million, with an all-time high of about $65 million, ranking 34th.

2. Trading Volume

The daily trading volume on the DEX of Sui peaked at over $19 million on May 10th. Since then, there has been a downward trend, with daily trading volumes mostly between $3 million and $6 million since June, indicating lower trading activity.

3. Network Activity

Since its launch, Sui has recorded a total of 16.53 million transactions, with an average transaction rate of 3 TPS during (, a total of 850,000 active addresses, and 104 active nodes. The highest TPS on the network was 26, which occurred during the Turbos IDO on May 12.

Compared to Ethereum L2, the actual TPS of Sui is still at a relatively low level.

In terms of daily active addresses, the peak occurred on May 20, reaching 130,000, mainly due to the opening of the permissionless pool feature by Cetus on May 19 and the airdrop of meme projects across the network. On regular days, the number of active addresses is usually below 10,000.

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) 4. Cross-Chain Bridge

Currently, there are three cross-chain bridges, Wormhole, kriya.finance, and WELLDONE, that support fund transfers to the Sui network, but the specific cross-chain amount data has not yet been disclosed.

2. Overview of Ecological Projects

As of June 14, the official Sui directory has included a total of 66 projects, some of which are still in the testing phase. Projects that have launched and issued tokens generally performed poorly, with leading DEX projects having fallen below their issue price, and the social platform SUIA seeing a decline of nearly 81.82%. The relatively better performance of Suipad is mainly attributed to its lower IDO pricing.

It is worth noting that due to the limited user base and funding scale of Sui, some projects such as Abyss World chose other networks (such as Polygon) for their IDOs instead of Sui.

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3. Token Release and Demand Analysis

The total supply of Sui Token is 10 billion coins, with an initial circulation of 528 million coins, accounting for 5.28%. From May to October 2023, there are mainly two types of tokens released for Sui: IEO issued tokens and staking node incentive tokens.

In the IEO section, approximately 34.61 million tokens are released each month, and the node staking incentive section releases 33.3 million tokens per month for the first three months, and 30 million tokens per month from the 4th to the 6th month. In total, the average monthly release in the first three months is 67.94 million tokens (approximately 0.67%), and from the 4th to the 6th month, the average monthly release is 64.61 million tokens (approximately 0.64%).

In November 2023, Sui will face its first large-scale unlocking, with more than 1 billion tokens being unlocked on that day, doubling the circulation.

However, from the demand side, the current Sui network transactions are quiet, with few users, and the demand for SUI Token is not apparent in the short term.

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4. Comparison with the Aptos Token Release Model

The total supply of Aptos Tokens (excluding staking incentives) is 1 billion coins, with an initial circulation of 130 million coins, accounting for 13%. After launch, in the first year, 4.54 million coins are released each month (approximately 0.45%). Starting from the second year, the monthly release amount increases significantly.

In addition, Aptos has additional node staking incentives, currently releasing about 4.9 million tokens per month (approximately 0.49%).

In comparison, Sui has a lower initial circulation, but a larger amount is released in the first 6 months. After 6 months of being online, Sui will experience a large one-time release, while Aptos adopts a gradual release model. Overall, Sui faces greater Token supply pressure in the first year compared to Aptos.

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5. Conclusion

Sui is currently in a cold start phase, with a small user base and low trading volume, needing to attract users and funds through continuous activities and ecosystem development. However, the current team seems to be more focused on building the technical side and has not yet launched large-scale user incentive measures.

Under the dual pressure of a bear market environment and the development of Ethereum Layer 2, Sui faces increased difficulty in attracting funds and users. From the perspective of the token economic model, Sui faces significant token release pressure in its first year. In the context of insufficient demand, such a large token supply may lead to considerable selling pressure on the SUI token.